The
sporadic attacks carried out by the distraught insurgents even on Christmas day,
despite the counter-insurgency operations of the military, is only one
indication that this war is not about to end just yet. To believe otherwise is
to foster apprehension in public consciousness and unduly incite criticism against
the government security measures, and also disparage the military or dampen the
morale of soldiers.
It is
important first, to commend the military and other security agencies combating
the insurgency in the North Eastern part of the country for the remarkable feat
they have so far achieved in routing the war-mongers.
They
have not only restored the once broken morale of soldiers, they have proved
that the long acquired international reputation of the Nigerian military as
efficient and reliable peace keepers is not misplaced. Ending the insurgency,
as the president ordered, includes dislodging Boko Haram members from occupying
Nigerian territories and purporting to establish a rule different from that of
the 1999 Constitution governing the entire country. To the extent that the military has been able
to liberate occupied territories largely or wholly, that aspect of ending the
insurgency can be said to be realisable by the end of this month. Indeed the
military have destroyed Boko Haram camps and freed many abducted men, women and
children
Only
recently the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen.
Abayomi Gabriel Olonisakin, while briefing journalists on his assessment
tour of the activities of ‘Operation Lafiya Dole’ in the Military Command and
Control Centre (MCCC) 7, Maiduguri, reiterated the sacrosanct nature of the
December deadline, assuring that “the operation is well on course…the December
deadline is sacrosanct…”
Considering
the achievement of the military, or the joint task force over the insurgency,
the assurance in Gen. Olonisakin’s statement is not totally misplaced. He
probably was speaking in the tone of military communication, which brooks no
negotiation when an ultimatum is given. However, for the ordinary Nigerian who
is being dehumanised and socially destabilised by the carnage harvested in the
terrorist activities, the perceived assurance of the military should not be
misunderstood, if by the end of this month, the Boko Haram still attacks any
part of the country. Indeed, it is realistic to expect the insurgents to fight
back.
An
insight into the Boko Haram insurgency shows three stages in their murderous
strategies. One is to destabilise communities by surprise, overrun security
paraphernalia, occupy the territory and proclaim victory over Nigeria. The Boko
Haram then embarked on a face-to-face combat with the military. Then, desperate
to get world attention, it gravitated to attacking vulnerable places like
hospitals, churches, mosques and facilities of international institutions and
corporate bodies. Contained at that level, the insurgents resorted to using
captured and brainwashed minors to attack soft targets such as markets, motor
parks, pedestrians’ convergence centres, and centres for internally displaced
persons.
Despite
the ultimatum, the Boko Haram insurgency, though surmountable, is neither a
conventional combat nor a local rebellion. Given the globalisation of
terrorism, Boko Haram might be tied indirectly to both Islamic State (ISIS) and
Al Qaeda. It is common knowledge amongst strategists and defence historians
that, as part of a pan-Sahelian insurgency, Boko Haram has cross-bred with
groups in Mali and Libya, and has also splintered into factions that are linked
to Al-Shabab in Somalia and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). If this is
the case, then what is before the military may be an influential sub-regional
command of a global terrorism empire. The implication of this is that the Boko
Haram enjoys finance, logistics, training and supplies from an unrestrained
international pool. That this accounts for some challenges on the Nigerian side
should not be discountenanced.
Therefore,
there is a need for caution by all Nigerians, including the media, in analysing
the rhetoric of deadlines and ultimatums. The situation at hand does not call
for a simplistic declaration of victory by the end of the month. Such an
endeavour would be counterproductive. Thus, President Buhari’s ultimatum and
deadline to the military, in this instance, should be viewed, not merely as a
warning to comply with a directive under the pains of sanctions, but more as a
guide for re-strategising and reviewing challenges being encountered by the
military.
Government
and military officials must tone down their rhetorics on the state of the
counter-insurgency war, so as not to give the impression that all is well.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian public should understand that the Boko Haram insurgents
are more than mere miscreants pestering a segment of the country. The
insurgency is an ongoing war against this country, and is linked to an
international coalition of pseudo-Islamic war-mongers with a brutal ideology to
dubiously acquire territories. As a result, the fight against Boko Haram is not
the military’s alone.
Whilst
the military have a duty of containing the insurgency, Nigerians should applaud
them for the modest success they have so far achieved in the counter-terrorism
and counter-insurgency operations.Deadline
or not, the Nigerian populace must also own this war by giving the military the
maximum encouragement. (Guardian)
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