President of Saudi Arabia |
The point
must be made that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer of oil, holds
a reserve of up to 260 billion barrels such as constituting 18 per
cent of the global reserve. With its small population of just
under 28 million vis-a-vis a Gross National Income of US$
1.546 trillion in 2013, a GDP of $748.4 billion, and a per capita
income of $53,640, it would seem reasonable to expect that the
country has enough money to suspend thinking about an
uncertain future.
It is,
therefore, a demonstration of visionary leadership that the Saudis would not
wait until the people are thirsty before they begin to dig a
well. The fall in the price of oil has brought so starkly to the
awareness of oil producing nations that the party is
over and hard times await those slow in thinking, slow in
diversifying their economies, and slow in exploring alternative means
of production and sources of income. Saudi leaders plan
to create a sovereign wealth fund from the public sale of a
portion of the state-owned oil company, Aramco, which is reportedly valued at about $1.5trillion.
Nigeria,
with a population of over 180 million, earns a Gross National Income
of $930 billion, has a GDP of $521.8 billion, and per
capita income of $5,360. It is most reasonable to say that if any oil
producing country has the most urgent task to, firstly save for the
rainy day, and secondly, continually think beyond oil revenue, new
ways to generate income, it must be this country. For years,
Nigeria’s leadership has mouthed the need to diversify the economy and to wean
the nation from oil dependency. But of course, the leadership, even as it
acknowledges the reasonableness of such proposition, hardly walks its talk.
That a
diversification of Nigeria’s economy is imperative may be gleaned from
provisions of the extant constitution. Section 16 (1) (a) of the 1999
Constitution (as amended) calls for the State to ‘harness the resources of the
nation and promote national prosperity and an efficient, dynamic, and
self-reliant economy.’ Subsection 2 (a) stipulates ‘the promotion
of a planned and balanced economic development.’ For years,
political and economic thinkers, as well as all reasonable men and women, have
argued that the nation’s economy must be diversified. It is even good for
national security, especially in the aspect of food production. Seminars
and symposia have been held, lectures given, and papers presented at numerous
fora.
Since 1999,
governments have said one thing or the other, even dreamed one vision or
another, toward implementing the constitutional stipulations. President
Obasanjo’s 1999 inaugural address identified ‘priority issues’ of his
government to include ‘food supply, food security and agriculture, [and] resuscitation
of the manufacturing industries.’ The late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s Vision
20:2020, tagged an economic transformation blueprint, and envisioned Nigeria
among the top 20 global economies by the year 2020. And his seven-point
agenda to drive this ambitious goal included ‘wealth creation through
diversified production, especially in the agricultural and solid minerals
sectors.’ Dr. Goodluck Jonathan said in his May 29, 2011 inaugural address
that ‘the day of transformation begins today… the leadership we have pledged is
decidedly transformative [and] the transformation will be
achieved in all critical sectors.’
Alas, nearly
two decades into democracy oil and gas still accounts for 87 per cent of
Nigeria’s exports. Subsistence agriculture engages up to 70 per cent of the
population but agriculture contributes less than 20 per cent to the gross
national product. Even then, up to 40 per cent of Nigeria’s perishable
produce is lost due to poor storage. In comparison, agriculture contributed
65.7 per cent in the pre-independence year of 1957.
It is a
clear indication of an underdeveloped economy where such a large percentage of
the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture. In comparison, only
two per cent of the population of the United States produces
the agricultural output that not only feeds more than 300 million
Americans but also generates up to $115 billion revenue
from export of agricultural goods. This high productivity
is certainly not by merely wishing and talking, and often repeated expressions
of commitment by high government officials. It is the product of thinking and
political will.
The
manifesto of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is wooly-worded on the matter
at hand. It promises to ‘embark on export and production diversification.’
President Muhammadu Buhari, in his inaugural speech last May, promised to
revive agriculture, solid minerals, mining, the major industries, and general
infrastructure. More recently, at a meeting with a delegation of French
investors, he is quoted to promise that the 2016 budget will
include measures to boost manufacturing as well as attract more
investment to agriculture and mining sectors. These lines were
repeated by some of his ministers at a town hall meeting in Kaduna some days
ago.
Political leadership
is the key to a successful achievement of this goal. For example, former
President of Brazil, Inacio Lula da Silva whose country came into oil
production relatively recently, said that his country would rather be an
exporter of oil by-products than just oil. And he made sure this happened. To
save Nigeria, Buhari must back his words with the requisite vision and firm
political will.
If
Saudi Arabia feels the need to wean itself from a
mono-product economy, it is a strong signal to Nigeria’s leaders
to muster the will and the discipline to move in similar direction,
and the Nigerian people, also to imbibe an attitude appropriate
to, and supportive of, that move. (Guardian)
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