There
is a suspicion that the Naira’s stability could be based on continual
intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria. June was certainly a cruel
trading month for emerging market currencies and this negativity could roll
over into July if escalating trade tensions weigh on sentiment and erode risk
appetite. It will be interesting to see if the Naira is able to maintain its
stability at a time where trade war fears and prospects of higher US interest
rates have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets.
Recession fears
escalate as trade war heats up
It has
been an interesting first half for 2018. Economic fundamentals and politics
took center stage as both fought for market influence. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode as growth and inflation trended
higher, while the trade war between the US and the rest of the world
particularly with China and the EU intensified further. In parallel to these
events the US administration provided massive stimulus to an economy that is
already near full employment which led to further strengthening ofthe USDollar.
Looking
at the big picture, strong economic growth in the US, despite signs of
softening elsewhere, provided support for equities. However, geopolitical
uncertainty and protectionism remained the key downside risk. We think that
we’re in the late stage of the current economic cycle, but there are no signs
of a recession yet. In such economic conditions equity investors should be more
cautious when investing. A more selective approach is needed as valuations are
likely to be further challenged in the months ahead as volatility is further
elevated.
Given
that inflation will be a key factor driving monetary policies in the second
half of 2018, investors need to keep a close eye on Oil prices. The decision by
OPEC and non-OPEC members to raise crude supplies by about one million barrels
starting from 1 July was considered a negative factor for Oil prices. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
However, the rise in supply from some OPEC and non-OPEC members will be met by
a decline from others; doing the math here will be complicated for investors
betting on the direction of prices.
Iran
currently faces the re-imposition of US sanctions on its Oil exports after the
Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Venezuela is also on
investors’ radars as there are further signs that its Oil industry is entering
a dangerous new phase. Meanwhile, Libyan Oil supply is also at risk with the
current political mess. These three countries together may contribute to a fall
of more than two million barrels a day by the end of 2018, which is likely to
keep Oil prices elevated in the second half of 2018.
Investors
and traders should also keep a close eye on the US Treasury yields. The gap
between short- and long-term US bond yields fell to its narrowest levels since
2007, and as we get closer to the inversion, the probability of a recession
becomes higher.
Have you heard this? Many
Nigerian exporters have been defrauded of huge amount of money in the process
of exporting commodities to foreign countries. Do you know why? They were not
trained on export operations, management, documentations and the best methods
of payment in export trade. This is terrible!!! Nigerians cannot continue to
lose money to foreigners in the course of export business. Exporters, why don’t
you get a practical manual that teaches the stages of export trade from
processing and packaging of commodities to receipt of payment by the foreign
buyers. It teaches export operations, export management, export documentations
and methods of payment in export trade? It is a contemporary step-by-step guide
to export trade. It tells all the contemporary dynamics in export trade. To get
it, click on the link below:
Hmmm!!! Folks, have you ever
imagined how the financial status of your firm will be when more than 20,000
CEOs and other key decision makers of blue-chip corporations pay for your
products and services or even give you very juicy deals. The link below will
tell you more: http://www.tectono-business.com/2015/07/tectono-business-review-in-conjunction_21.html
No comments:
Post a Comment