Thursday, 6 December 2018

WILL NIGERIA JOIN OPEC IN PRODUCTION CUTS?

The past few weeks have certainly not been kind to Oil markets amid oversupply concerns and fears over slowing global growth negatively impacting demand.

Severely depressed Oil prices have hit Nigeria’s government revenues, weighed on official Naira pegged against the Dollar and fuelled concerns over the implementation of the 2019 budget which pegged Oil at $60 per barrel. With the nation still in the process of recovering from a recession, the government may think twice about joining OPEC in production cuts.

It must be kept in mind that Nigeria was exempted from the OPEC deal signed in November 2016 thanks to domestic risk factors. With the security situation in Nigeria still fragile, growth slowly picking up momentum and diversification plans in the process, this may not be the best of times for the nation to limit production.

The current environment certainly presents a strong argument for OPEC+ to take action in a bid to stop Oil prices sinking into 2019. While a cut is on the cards, the question on the minds of many investors will be how much will be cut and how it will be split among OPEC+ members. Markets are projecting OPEC to cut production by roughly over one million barrels per day from November’s level. A cut that is in line with market expectations will be supportive of Oil prices. However, if OPEC disappoints by leaving production unchanged, Oil prices are at threat of tumbling sharply.

Dollar on standby ahead of NFP
Away from Nigeria, the Dollar is likely to remain in a narrow range ahead of the US jobs reports scheduled for release on Friday. The Dollar was attacked from all directions earlier in the week after an inversion of the US Treasury yield curve stimulated fears over the US economy decelerating. Sentiment towards the Greenback could still swing in favour of the bulls this week if the US jobs report ticks all the boxes. A strong NFP figure coupled with signs of accelerating wage growth in November will reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates in 2019.

Sterling unsettled by Brexit uncertainty
Political drama in the United Kingdom has left the British pound quite unsettled. Theresa May’s repeated defeats in parliament are discouraging and likely to fuel pessimism over her Brexit deal being squarely rejected next week. Market fears over the UK crashing out of the European Union with no deal in place should keep Pound bears in the game for the rest of this week.

Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD is certainly bearish on the weekly charts. Prices are trading below the 20 Simple Moving Average while the MACD has crossed to the downside. A solid breakdown below the 1.2700 should provide bears with enough encouragement to target 1.2590.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Where Gold concludes this trading week will primarily depend on the pending US jobs report released on Friday.

A strong US jobs report for November will be Dollar positive as expectations heighten over the Fed raising rates in 2019 – an outcome that is seen negatively impacting zero-yielding Gold. Alternatively, a disappointing report will dilute speculation over higher US interest rates ultimately pushing Gold prices higher. In regards to the technical picture, Gold prices are bullish on the daily charts. A decisive breakout and daily close above the $1,240 resistance level, may pave a path towards $1,248 and $1,260 respectively.


Have you heard this? Many Nigerian exporters have been defrauded of huge amount of money in the process of exporting commodities to foreign countries. Do you know why? They were not trained on export operations, management, documentations and the best methods of payment in export trade. This is terrible!!! Nigerians cannot continue to lose money to foreigners in the course of export business. Exporters, why don’t you get a practical manual that teaches the stages of export trade from processing and packaging of commodities to receipt of payment by the foreign buyers. It teaches export operations, export management, export documentations and methods of payment in export trade? It is a contemporary step-by-step guide to export trade. It tells all the contemporary dynamics in export trade. To get it, click on the link below:
http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html