FXTM Research Analyst
It will be another relatively light
week for the Nigerian economy with the only Tier One economic report already
released this afternoon. However, external drivers in the form of weak Oil
prices, Federal Reserve policy meeting and ongoing trade tensions could spice
up the mood at home.
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The latest inflation figures from
Nigeria may fuel concerns over inflationary pressures creeping back into the
economy. Consumer prices rose slightly to 11.40% in May from the 11.37% in the
prior month amid rising food prices. Seasonal factors and recent implementation
of the minimum wage may have also played a role in rising inflation. Should
consumer prices continue to accelerate in the coming months, this could force
the CBN of Nigeria to maintain status quo on interest rate.
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While the timing of a rate cut remains
uncertain, there is still a possibility of the CBN surprising markets near the
end of 2019 if domestic conditions stabilize, inflation is able to moderate
back towards the 6%-9% target and the Fed cuts interest rates.
Fed meeting the key focus in the week ahead
All eyes will be on the Federal
Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday, where any hint of waning patience
from policymakers could undermine the Greenback’s recent gains. It remains to
be seen which part of the economic equation will hold most of the Fed’s
attention – confidence that the US economy’s record-breaking expansion has more
room to run, or the growing downside risks stemming from President Donald
Trump’s trade conflicts with global economies. Should markets detect the Fed’s
bias towards an “insurance” rate cut, the DXY could retrace towards its 100-day
moving average of 97.0, with stronger support potentially coming at its 200-day
moving average of 96.59.
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Is Oil becoming desensitized to geopolitical risks?
One would have expected Brent Crude to
shoot higher as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East trigger concerns over
potential supply risks making a return.
However, Brent Crude is wobbling above
$62 at time of writing, even as OPEC continues to stoke market confidence that
the ongoing supply cuts will be extended through 2019. It is becoming clear
that investors are overlooking geopolitics to focus on demand side factors in
the form of slowing global growth and persistent trade tensions. With the
International Energy Agency’s forecasting that supply will outgrow demand in
2020, the path of least resistance for oil points south, even as OPEC+
producers attempt to rebalance markets in an effort to limit downside shocks.
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