FXTM Research Analyst
The mood across financial markets was
cautious this morning as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and
persistent uncertainty over US-China trade developments capped risk appetite.
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Asian stocks were subdued on Friday
after China’s industrial output dropped to its lowest levels for more than 17
years in May. The risk-off tone and disappointment from Asia have already
infected European markets which are trading lower this morning. With a sense of
caution also kicking in ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall
Street may struggle to maintain gains this afternoon as investors adopt a
guarded approach towards riskier assets.
Although global equity markets have
performed relatively well in June thus far, the quarter-to-date (QTD) gains
across the board are nothing to celebrate. One must really question the
sustainability of the stock market rally, given the storm of headwinds weighing
on global sentiment. It must be kept in mind that the fundamental ingredients
for a selloff across stock markets are bubbling dangerously in the cauldron.
Equity bears remain in the vicinity and may be simply waiting for the perfect
opportunity to make their move.
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Dollar waits for US retail sales report
The main risk event for the Dollar
today will be the highly anticipated US retail sales report for May which will
be closely scrutinised by investors for signs of trade tensions negatively
impacting domestic consumption.
Sizzling trade tensions and
disappointing economic data from the States have fuelled speculation over the
Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. Since the Federal Reserve
will be meeting next week, the retail sales data will play an important role in
shaping expectations for the central bank’s forward guidance. Should retail
sales disappoint by printing below 0.6% month-on-month forecast, the Dollar
will feel the pain, as the 75% probability for a Fed rate cut in July will
potentially tick higher.
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Looking at the technical picture, the
Dollar Index is trading around 97.00 as of writing. Prices have scope to retest
96.50 is retail sales disappoint.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
It has been an unquestionably bullish
trading week for Gold which has rallied to a yearly high above $1355.
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The forces behind Gold’s aggressive
appreciation revolve around geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ongoing
US-China trade tensions and rising expectations over the Fed cutting interest
rates. With these key fundamental drivers straining investor confidence and
souring appetite for riskier assets, Gold is set to shine as investors sprint
to safe-haven assets. From a technical perspective, Gold bulls are in the
driver’s seat with a weekly close above $1360 opening the doors towards $1372
and $1390, respectively.
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