FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
The latest inflation figures from the
Nigerian economy are certainly good news for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
and the economy as a whole.
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Inflation in Africa’s largest economy
dropped to its lowest in a year at 11.1% last month as food prices and services
reduced in July compared to June. Further signs of inflation cooling during the
third and fourth quarter of 2019 should present the CBN an opportunity to
re-join the global easing bandwagon – ultimately supporting domestic economic
growth. While the exact timings of the rate cut remain uncertain, it now
remains a matter or when rather than if. Lower rates in Nigeria have the
potential to stimulate consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP.
Markets search for stability as we head into the weekend
It has been a rollercoaster trading
week defined by heightened trade uncertainty, yield curve inversions and global
recession fears.
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The “risk off, risk on” pendulum swung
back and forth as investors grappled with conflicting signals on the US-China
trade front, disappointing economic data from China and Germany and depressed
oil prices.
Some semblance of stability is
returning to Asian markets on Friday after China hinted at more fiscal support
for its economy. While European markets are set to open cautiously higher as
investors closely monitor the Treasury yields, gains may be limited by the
general unease and uncertainty which is shrouding financial markets.
All eyes remain on the yield curve…
History was made this week after the
yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.
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Market players offloaded riskier assets
like a hot potato and rushed to perceived safe havens like bonds and Gold as
trade tensions and global growth fears promoted risk aversion. Although
treasury yields are climbing away from record lows on Friday as some
tranquillity returns to markets, the movements in the bond markets are poised
to remain on investors radars in the week ahead.
Dollar maintains grip on iron throne
King Dollar has appreciated against
almost every single G10 currency this week excluding the British Pound and
Australian Dollar.
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The Dollar’s positive performance suggests
that it is still viewed as a destination of safety amid trade disputes,
geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns. Appetite towards the
Greenback was sweetened further on Thursday after US retail sales jumped by
0.7% in July, which eased concerns about the health of the US economy. I expect
the Dollar Index to push higher based on price action, as the economic calendar
for the United States is void of Tier 1 economic releases on Friday.
In regards to the technical picture,
the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. The intraday breakout above
98.20 should encourage a move higher towards 98.40.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold prices depreciated slightly on
Friday morning but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks to
global recession fears, uncertainty over US-China trade developments and
falling US bond yields.
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Gold bulls remain firmly in the
driver’s seat and are set to switch into higher gear as geopolitical risk
factors and lower interest rates across the globe send investors stampeding
towards the precious metal. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is heavily
bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and
higher lows. A weekly close above $1500 should open
the doors towards $1535 and $1550, respectively.
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