FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
A sense of positivity is sweeping
across financial markets on Tuesday amid signs of progress in trade
negotiations and hopes of stimulus in major economies.
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Asian markets were mixed during early
trading after China’s central bank announced a key interest rate reform over
the weekend – a move seen supporting economic growth. The mood across European
markets is set to improve further on rising optimism about stimulus measures in
Germany after Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested that Berlin could spend up
to €50 billion in an economic crisis.
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While stimulus hopes and renewed trade
optimism are clearly fuelling global equity bulls, the question is for how
long?
The explosive movements witnessed
across financial markets last week highlight how global sentiment remains
fragile and highly sensitive to geopolitical risk factors. Equity bears have
enough ammunition to make an unwelcome return should renewed trade tensions and
global recession fears rekindle risk aversion.
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King Dollar comfortably sits on its throne
The mighty Dollar continues to tighten
its grip across currency markets as the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a fresh
three-week high at 98.40 on Tuesday.
Stimulus hopes are sending investors
away from safe haven assets, which is lifting US government bond yields -
consequently supporting king Dollar.
Where the Dollar concludes this week
will be heavily influenced by the FOMC minutes and Chair Jerome Powell's speech
in Jackson Hole on Friday. Should the minutes and Powell’s speech confirm
expectations of a US interest rate cut in September, the Dollar has the potential
to weaken.
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In regards to the technical picture,
the DXY remains bullish on the daily charts. An intraday breakout above 98.50
should inspire a move higher towards 99.00.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold bulls are engaged in a fierce
battle to defend the $1500 psychological level as investors seek riskier
assets.
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While the improving market mood has the
potential to send the precious metal lower in the near term, the medium to
longer term outlook remains bullish. Gold is seen finding ample support from a
dovish set of Fed minutes and if Powell signals a September interest rate cut
during his speech at Jackson Hole.
In regards to the technical picture,
Gold is bullish on the daily charts. Should $1500 prove to be a reliable
support, prices are seen rebounding towards $1525 and $1550. A breakdown below
$1500 opens the doors towards $1485.
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