FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
Escalating trade tensions are set to
dominate market sentiment in the week ahead following the explosive
developments on the US-China trade front last Friday. Beijing announced it
would apply additional tariffs of between 5% to 10% on $75 billion of US imports
from September. US President Donald Trump wasted no time in counterpunching
against retaliatory tariffs announced by Beijing, vowing to hike US tariffs on
$250 billion of Chinese imports from 25% to 30% starting on 1 October. He also
said planned tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods due
to start on September 1 will now be 15% instead of 10%.
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This bombshell development will likely
fuel concerns over escalating trade disputes between the world’s two largest
economies threatening global growth and stability. Investors are seen
maintaining a safe distance from world equities and riskier currencies while
rushing to safe-haven assets such as bonds, Gold and the Japanese Yen as risk
aversion intensifies.
Nigeria will unveil updates on key
economic reports in the week ahead with the Balance of Trade figures and
foreign exchange reserves under the spotlight. The Naira is set to witness
further stability against the Dollar if Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves
increase towards $45 billion in August.
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Rising foreign reserves should provide
the extra ammunition needed for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to defend the
Naira against external risks in the form of trade tensions. Nevertheless, the
nation still remains exposed to oil price volatility given how crude exports
account for over 90% of exports earnings and over 70% of government revenues.
However, there is a threat of reserves falling given how oil prices have
depreciated roughly 5% over the past month. Falling reserves have the potential
to impact exchange rate stability, inflation and economic growth.
Outside of Nigeria, trade tensions,
Brexit, global growth concerns, developments in Europe and falling oil prices
will remain on investors radars. The Dollar is positioned to benefit from
safe-haven flows as market uncertainty accelerates the flight to safety, while
the Euro and Pound are seen pressured by political and economic risks.
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Gold is set to shine through the market
chaos with prospects of lower interest rates across the globe and overall
market uncertainty pushing the precious metal towards $1550 regions.
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