FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
Rising political risk in the United
States has joined the growing list of negative themes weighing heavily on
global sentiment.
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In a dramatic development overnight, US
lawmakers have called for an impeachment inquiry against US President Donald
Trump. Given how this increases the prospect of heightened political
uncertainty in the world’s largest economy and compounds the list of
geopolitical factors, risk assets and global equities in particular remain in
the firing line.
The negative mood lingering across
markets is also being fueled by renewed US-China trade uncertainty after Trump
criticized China’s trade practices in a United Nation’s speech. Fresh signs of
escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies will be
negative for market sentiment as investors fret over slowing world growth.
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Asian markets slipped on Wednesday
morning as US political uncertainty and trade concerns drained investor
confidence. The growing caution and absence of risk appetite could find its way
into European markets later this morning.
What next in the Brexit saga?
Pound bulls experienced a sugar rush on
Tuesday after the Supreme Court ruled Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament
‘unlawful, void and to no effect’.
However, gains were later surrendered
as investors refocused on the bigger picture and what it meant for Brexit.
Given how the prime minister said he disagreed with the Supreme Court ruling
and vowed that Britain would leave the EU by the 31 October deadline, nothing
has changed in this complicated Brexit equation. Opposition leaders are already
calling for Boris Johnson to resign which will add to the political uncertainty
as the clock ticks down. Investors should fasten their seat belts and prepare
for more drama and action in the Brexit saga as Parliament reconvenes on
Wednesday.
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There are so many questions drifting in
the air over what to expect in the coming weeks and this compounds the overall
uncertainty. Will Johnson be able to strike a deal in Brussels on October
17-18? Will he be forced to seek an extension to Article 50? Will there be a
general election? Does the prime minister have a plan B?
The British Pound could transform into
a fierce battleground for bulls and bears due to its sensitivity to Brexit
developments.
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Looking at the technical picture,
prices still remain in a downtrend on the weekly charts. However, a solid
weekly close above 1.2500 should open the doors towards 1.2700.
Egyptian stocks hit by protest uncertainty
Egypt's benchmark EGX30 index fell over
4% on Tuesday as protests in Cairo and other cities over the weekend sparked
risk aversion consequently dampening appetite for riskier assets.
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While concerns over further escalation
may drag the index lower, losses could be cushioned by Egypt’s improving
macro-economic conditions. The nation expanded by 5.3% in 2018 which was its
highest rate of growth in 10 years while inflation is at its lowest level in
six years at 7.5%. Overall sentiment towards the economy has the potential to
improve if the Central Bank of Egypt cuts its key interest rates on Thursday in
an effort to stimulate growth.
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