FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
Oil prices rose more than 1% on
Wednesday after the US reported a sharp drop in crude stockpiles soothed
oversupply concerns.
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Speculation around OPEC+ extending
production cuts coupled with easing trade tensions between the United States
and China are also stimulating appetite for WTI Crude and Brent. While Oil is
positioned to appreciate further amid the improving market mood, the upside is
bound to face numerous obstacles down the road.
The dynamic influencing oil prices are
certainly shifting from supply side to demand side factors and this continues
to be reflected in the commodity’s valuation. Should US-China trade tensions
make an unwelcome return and reignite fears around slowing global growth, oil
will be exposed to downside shocks.
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However, despite all the uncertainty,
oil still remains in the black year-to-date with WTI Crude rising 28% and Brent
appreciating 17%. While this is good news for emerging market energy exporters
like Nigeria who heavily depend on Oil to promote economic growth, it opens the
nation to external risks.
As we head into the final quarter of
2019, the outlook for oil markets will be clouded by trade developments and
global growth concerns. Nigeria has already cut its forecast for its benchmark
crude oil prices to $55 per barrel from $60 due to “strong indications” of an
oversupplied oil market. While the cut has the potential to cushion the nation
against any unexpected price shocks, it does not change the fact that oil
accounts for 90% of export earnings.
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Euro stumbles lower ahead of ECB meeting
Where the Euro concludes this week will
be heavily influenced by what the ECB does on Thursday.
The central bank is widely expected to
cut deposit rates by 10 basis points, its first cut since 2016, restart
quantitative easing and a new pledge to keep rates low for longer. While this
may be good news for the Eurozone economy, it is certainly negative for the
Euro which remains near a 2-year low against the Dollar.
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Euro bears still remain in firm control
on the weekly charts thanks to fundamental and technical themes weighing
heavily on the currency. A solid weekly close below 1.10 should inspire a
decline towards 1.09.
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