FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
The explosive appreciation in oil
prices could not have come at a more testing period for the global economy
currently embroiled in trade wars, geopolitical risks and fears over
decelerating economic growth.
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Oil bulls are clearly back in the
picture after drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields over the weekend wiped
out 5.7 million barrels of the kingdom’s production, equivalent to more than 5%
of the world’s daily supply. Although Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity and US
Strategic Petroleum Reserves could plug some of the lost output, where oil
trades in the near term will be influenced by how long it takes for Saudi
production to fully recover.
It is this concern over negative supply
shocks amid geopolitical tensions which should keep oil prices buoyed in the
short term. However, where the commodity trades in the longer term will depend
on many factors including global growth, geopolitics and US-China trade
developments.
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The dynamics influencing oil prices are
certainly swinging back to supply-side factors and this is being reflected in
oil’s bullish price action following the monumental disruption.
Who are the biggest winner and losers from higher oil prices?
While higher oil prices are a welcome
development for oil-producing countries like the United States, Russia and
Canada among many others, it has the potential to increase the running costs of
businesses ultimately igniting inflationary pressures. Rising inflation will be
a drag on consumer spending, which may end up pressuring economic growth
further.
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Emerging market energy importers like
Turkey, India and South Africa will feel the heat from appreciating oil prices
as it may not only stoke inflationary pressures but complicate the central
banks’ efforts to ease monetary policy to boost growth. Rising oil also
presents a risk to China, the world’s second-largest economy, due to its strong
appetite for imported energy.
The biggest winner will be the United
States due to its status as the world’s largest oil producer, although everyone
will lose if elevated oil prices tip the global economy into recession.
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Dollar firms on safe-haven flows
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the
Middle East are encouraging investors to maintain a safe distance from riskier
assets.
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In times of uncertainty and unease, the
Dollar is still seen as a destination of safety and this continues to be
reflected in the Dollar Index (DXY). Should risk aversion remain a major theme,
the DXY will push higher ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this week. While
the path of least resistance for the DXY points north, where prices close this
week will be heavily influenced by the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press
conference.
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