Han Tan,
FXTM Market Analyst
Asian stocks and currencies are mixed,
as the post-trade truce bounce is losing steam. Investors are now weighing up
their next steps after the news of the “very substantial” phase one deal, as
touted by US President Donald Trump.
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According to media reports, China
doesn’t yet share the same optimism over an imminent trade agreement, with
potentially more trade talks slated for the end of October.
The latest twist in the US-China trade
conflict is yet another reminder to investors not to get caught up in the hype.
Trying to bridge the conflicting interests between the world’s two largest
economies is a gargantuan task; an undertaking that has already proven to be
protracted and complicated.
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Considering that Gold is now edging
back towards $1500 while 10-year US Treasury yields have fallen below the
psychological 1.70 level, investors appear to be bracing themselves for the
risk that the current pause in the US-China trade conflict could yet see
another state of heightened tensions.
Brent struggling as US-China trade deal optimism fades
Brent’s stay above $60/bbl proved
short-lived, with futures having declined 2.9 percent so far this week. Markets
have been unwilling to assign a geopolitical-risk premium to Oil prices, as
demand-side fears continue to weigh on the global outlook.
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Prices remain primarily swayed by the
shifting sands of US-China trade tensions, which have already prompted multiple
downward revisions to global growth and demand for Oil. Over the near-term,
should the EIA data on Thursday confirm market expectations of a fifth weekly
increase in US crude inventories, that could cause prices to slip further. The
IMF’s world economic outlook, to be released today, is expected to add to the
downcast narrative, as trade tensions continue to take their toll on the global
economy.
EU leaders’ summit immediate hurdle for Brexit deal
GBPUSD is trading above the 1.26 level
at the time of writing, even as the European Union Presidency tempered
expectations that a Brexit deal can be struck prior to the upcoming EU leaders’
summit suggesting that Brexit talks may have to be extended.
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It remains to be seen whether UK Prime
Minister Boris Johnson will adhere to the Benn Act, which states that he must
seek a Brexit extension if a deal is not achieved by this Saturday. A request
for a Brexit extension would be a major blow to PM Johnson’s credibility,
having repeatedly insisted that Brexit must happen by the October 31 deadline.
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Given such a context, with EU leaders
and Westminster set to have their say on PM Johnson’s Brexit ambitions,
sterling traders could see a tumultuous build-up into the EU summit Thursday
and Friday.
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