FXTM Chief Market
Strategist
Equity markets in Asia kicked off the
week mixed after the S&P 500 posted a 0.5% decline on Friday following the
latest developments in politics and trade. Reports suggesting the US
administration is considering measures to limit flows into China, through
delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges and restricting pension funds
investments in Chinese markets, hit sentiment.
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While no confirmation was received on
this front, the idea of the trade war moving into a war on capital flows will lead to a
risk-off environment. Whether the White House would implement such restrictions
or just use them as a tool to gain leverage in the upcoming trade negotiations,
the message sent was not received well by financial markets.
US capital markets are considered some
of the most open markets globally. Any signs of
restricting access to foreigners would indicate that Chinese companies
may need to consider alternative options to raise capital. This gives the US a
disadvantage against its competitors and will eventually lead to less financial
capital inflows.
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The week ahead
Investors have a busy week to digest
with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report likely to be the main risk event of the
week. Having cut interest rates for a second time this year, the Federal
Reserve is watching economic data very closely to decide its next move. Last
month, US jobs growth slowed to its lowest level since May and came up short of
expectations.
However, when looking at the overall
report it wasn’t terribly bad. Wage growth continued to expand at 3.2% and the
unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. Another miss on the headline number
may send a warning sign to Fed policymakers, who have so far ruled out further
rate cuts in 2019 and 2020. However, markets are still convinced that another
cut is on the way this year, so any positive or negative surprise readings will
likely lead to big moves in the US Dollar.
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Euro traders will keep a close eye on
manufacturing PMIs which dropped to the lowest level in a decade in Germany
last week. The ongoing US-China trade dispute has clearly hit global
manufacturing and if the PMI release confirms the flash figures, we may see
further pressure on the Euro.
Currency traders are also watching the
Australian Dollar closely with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut
interest rates to a new record low of 0.75% on Tuesday. The slowdown in China
appears to be a major factor impacting growth and employment in Australia; though
policymakers may be worried that cheap credit will fuel a new bubble in the
housing market. This is likely to complicate the RBA’s decision which means if the bank decides to stay on
hold, we would expect to see a bounce in
the Aussie.
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The Pound was the worst-performing G10
currency last week, declining 1.3% against the Greenback. After a sharp fall on
Wednesday, Sterling continued to move lower towards the end of week driven by
comments from MPC member Michael Saunders who suggested the Bank of England may
have to cut interest rates even if there is a Brexit deal.
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Sterling is likely to be the most
difficult currency to trade in the weeks ahead as Brexit newsflow will be the
dominant factor. However, expect to see bigger swings either way as we approach
the October 31 deadline.
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