FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
High level trade negotiations will
certainly be the major theme this week as Chinese officials head to Washington
to resume talks with their US counterparts.
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Given the unfavorable global
macroeconomic conditions and growing pain manufacturers are feeling from
protracted trade disputes, markets are cautiously optimistic for some progress
in trade talks. However, any hopes of a major breakthrough deal are being quashed
by mixed messages from the United States and China.
It was only on Monday, the Trump
administration blacklisted 28 Chinese organizations which essentially
restricted their ability to do business with American firms. This move by the
Trump administration will most likely strain US-China relations and add to the
growing list of barriers preventing a major breakthrough anytime soon.
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Nevertheless, an interim deal that
halts the scheduled tariff hikes on Chinese goods coming into effect on October
15 will be warmly welcomed by investors across the globe. Fresh signs of both
sides expressing interest for further discussions should offer some light at
the end of the long trade war tunnel.
Asian stocks are flashing green on
Tuesday amid trade hopes and this sentiment could lift European stocks later in
the day.
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Another rollercoaster week for the Pound
This will be another choppy trading
week for the British Pound as investors evaluate whether the United Kingdom and
Brussels will be able to strike a Brexit deal before the EU summit on October
17-18. With just over three weeks until the October 31 Brexit deadline, the
clock is ticking with the hourglass almost empty.
Will UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson be
able to secure a last-minute deal with the European Union? Will he be forced to
ask Brussels for an extension if Parliament has not agreed to leave the EU with
or without a deal by October 19? Or is Britain on route to crashing out of the
European Union on October 31?
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The outlook for the Pound remains
clouded by uncertainty and this continues to be reflected in the currency’s
valuation. GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts. A breakdown below
1.2250 should open the doors towards 1.2200 and 1.2080.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is struggling to push back above
the psychological $1500 level on Tuesday thanks to a stabilizing Dollar and
cautious optimism over US-China trade talks. While the precious metal may
depreciate in the near term, the downside losses will be limited by core market
theme draining risk sentiment.
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Where the metal concludes this week
will be heavily influenced by high-level trade talks between the United States
and China. A market friendly outcome that paves the way to further negotiations
could send Gold prices sinking towards the $1485 level. Alternatively, if the
negotiations disappoint markets and fuel risk aversion, Gold bulls should be
injected with enough confidence to challenge $1515 and $1525.
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