Chief Market Strategist
at FXTM
Investors across the globe are closely
monitoring the high-level US-China trade talks, which will kick off today as
China’s Vice Premier Liu He sits on the table with US trade representative
Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
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Several trade-related headlines have
been released prior to the meeting and looking at the market’s reaction, there
seems to be lot of confusion. Wall Street and European Indices climbed
yesterday after reports showing Chinese officials offered to increase purchases
of US agricultural products in the hope of reaching a partial deal.
Earlier this morning, S&P 500
futures spiked lower, falling 1.3% after the South China Morning Post reported
that the two countries had made no progress on key trade issues during deputy
level talks, and Vice-Premier Liu He may leave earlier than expected. However,
futures pared most of the losses following a story from the New York Times that
Washington will issue licenses allowing some US firms to supply non-sensitive
goods to Huawei Technologies.
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The Chinese Yuan climbed more than 0.3%
this morning following Bloomberg’s report that Trump’s administration is
looking at rolling out a previously agreed currency pact. Such an agreement may
lead to further strength in CNY, but details of the pact are needed to better
assess the magnitude of the move.
There’s obviously a lot of noise in the
markets, and no one knows for certain how the latest round of negotiations will
end. The lack of clarity will keep trading volumes low and volatility high, but
it seems investors are remaining defensive for now. If talks break down and
Trump’s administration raises tariffs next Tuesday, we are likely to see
another steep selloff in risk assets.
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Federal Reserve needs to better align with market expectations
The minutes of the FOMC released
yesterday showed sharp division among its members about the future path of US
monetary policy. Some policymakers are worried that markets are heavily betting
on further easing following the two rate cuts in July and September. That’s
obvious when you look at Fed funds futures rates compared to the Fed’s own dot
plot.
Aligning with market expectations first
requires consensus among policymakers, but Fed members are becoming
increasingly divided.
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The minutes didn’t have a significant
impact on markets yesterday. Investors still anticipate an 85% chance of a rate
cut by the end of the month according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. This probability
may change depending on the outcome of trade talks and upcoming data, with
today’s consumer prices and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment in focus
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