FXTM Chief Market
Strategist
Global equity markets fell sharply on
Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 494 points bringing
its two-day decline to more than 800 points.
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On the other side of the Atlantic, the
UK’s FTSE 100 fell 3.2%, making it the steepest one-day decline since January
2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 in Japan and ASX in Australia both dropped more
than 2% today.
Traders driven by quantitative
strategies are also seeing an ugly picture with all US three major indices
falling below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, which is usually
interpreted as more turbulence ahead.
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Bonds have been in strong demand so
fixed-income investors who have spent almost one-year accumulating positions in
their portfolios, have been waiting for this moment, although as usual, the sell-off in stocks has
been later than anticipated.
The Trigger
The selloff kicked off on Tuesday after
US ISM Manufacturing PMI showed activity fell to the lowest level in a decade.
It then accelerated after the ADP jobs report indicated that the pace of hiring
is slowing.
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Reports that the US will open a new
front in its trade war with Europe after WTO ruling also rubbed salt into the
wound. While it’s too early to conclude that last year’s fourth quarter turmoil
which led to a 19% decline in the S&P 500 will repeat itself, the list of
risks continues to grow.
Trump blames the Fed and Democrats
President Trump was fast to blame the
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on falling manufacturing activity, calling the Fed
“pathetic”. A day later he accused the Democrats impeachment inquiry of being
responsible for the market sell-off. For
Trump, he always associates the rise in equity markets with his policies, but
never the losses.
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In behavioral finance, that’s what we
call Self-Attribution bias. This bias refers to an individuals’ tendency to
attribute successes to personal skills and failures to factors beyond their
control. While it’s true that US equities have benefited mostly from tax
reforms over the past two years, “thanks to President Trump”, it's now not the
impeachment inquiry nor the Fed driving equities lower, but the trade war which
has been driven by President Trump himself.
That’s why next week’s US-China trade
talks will be of extreme importance to financial markets. A resolution or
interim deal is needed to prevent further turmoil.
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More US data
Before the Sino-American trade talks
resume, investors will be cautiously monitoring upcoming US data. The key
economic figures to look at are today’s ISM non-manufacturing number and
tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls.
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If the contraction in manufacturing
activity translates to weakness in the far larger services sector, then it’s
time to get seriously worried. As we know the main driver of the American
economy is its consumer, and two-thirds of consumer spending is on services,
such as housing and healthcare. Any cracks in that sector suggest the US
economy is getting closer to falling into recession.
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