FXTM Chief Market
Strategist
Traders across the globe were eagerly
anticipating the opening of forex markets this morning and Sterling, following
Saturday’s House of Commons (non-) vote on the Brexit deal. The initial
reaction to delaying the vote on the withdrawal agreement dragged the Pound
slightly lower to around 1.29 at the time of writing.
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Sterling bulls have been disappointed
due to Members of Parliament failing to pass Boris Johnson’s deal, however
optimism remains high that the deal will pass this week. Another reason for the
limited fall in the Pound is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has reduced
further after Johnson asked for an extension of the deadline.
Trading the Pound is likely to become
very volatile once again this week. The currency has already priced in much of
the good news over the past seven trading days, surging almost 800 pips from
October’s low. With only 10 days left to meet the October 31 deadline, Brussels
needs to agree to an extension if the current deal doesn’t go through. While EU
leaders want to avoid a disorderly Brexit, they prefer to get the deal done
this week.
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Boris Johnson may make another attempt
today to hold the meaningful vote, but it’s up to House Speaker Bercow to allow
it and this looks unlikely. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab believes the
government has the numbers to get the deal through.
But UK politics, as we have seen
recently, is very complicated and winning the vote is not guaranteed. Some
Members of Parliament may try to amend the current bill by asking for a
referendum to be attached to it. All in all, you probably need to be a
political analyst to trade the Pound, as the nuances of the political process
are played out
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Bye-bye Draghi
On Thursday, Mario Draghi will hold his
final monetary policy decision at the ECB amid growing division within the
governing council. We do not expect any new measures, and it's going to be more
of a farewell event after eight years at the helm.
The ECB will restart its 20 billion
euros of asset purchases per month in November, and the key question remains,
is it enough? Economists believe that the current scheme will not be effective
in lifting inflation, neither will be the 10-basis point rate cut. So, Draghi
is likely to use his final meeting to push governments to use their fiscal
policies to bring growth back.
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US Earnings
For stock investors, it’s all about
earnings this week. We kicked off the season on low expectations with markets
anticipating a third quarter of shrinking profits. (Factset are estimating
earnings to decline 4.1% in Q3). However, US indices remain near their record
highs this year in anticipation of improved profits for the final quarter of
the year and into 2020. That’s why less focus will be on current results and
more into forward projections.
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