Chief Market Strategist
at FXTM
Investors were caught by surprise when
the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi announced on
Tuesday that she would initiate a formal impeachment inquiry against President
Trump. The news led to a mild selloff in US equities with the S&P 500
ending the trading session 0.84% lower.
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It only took one statement from
President Trump on Wednesday indicating that a US-China trade deal may happen
soon, to put the bulls back in control. The market’s reaction to Trump’s
statement tells us that trade remains the biggest factor influencing asset
prices, and while we can’t completely rule out the impact of the impeachment
proceedings, this is less of a factor currently driving markets.
After the White House released the
transcript of the call with Ukraine’s President, markets became convinced that
the Senate would just ignore it, unless there is additional evidence that he
broke the law. At this point in time, the chances of impeachment are very slim.
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The political mess may now encourage
President Trump to accept an imperfect deal with China. After all, he needs to
prove that he’s the master of deal-making, and now is the right time to raise
his approval rating higher. If there’s further evidence that the fundamental
outlook for the trade war is improving, we’re likely to see another leg higher
in US equities.
Many traders were also surprised by the
magnitude of the Dollar’s rally yesterday. The Dollar Index (DXY) is now only
0.5% away from its two and a half year high. While there’s no single reason to
explain the Dollar’s strength, multiple factors are in play. The UK is facing a
political crisis with Brexit, the Eurozone is near a recession, bond yields
across the developed economies remain very depressed, and investors want a safe
place to park their money.
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Despite the impeachment drama, the USD
continues to cement its place as the major safe haven currency. However, if the
Greenback continues to march higher from here, expect Trump to push the
Treasury Department to intervene in the currency.
In commodity markets, Oil has now
erased most of the gains in the immediate aftermath of the biggest ever attack
on Saudi Oil facilities on September 14. After reports showed Aramco has
restored its Oil production capacity to 11.3 million barrels a day, supply risk
premium has faded and focus has returned to the demand-side of the equation.
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However, I remain concerned on how the
US-Iranian tensions play out in the next couple of weeks which means
geopolitical risk premium may return to prices quickly.
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