Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
Investor sentiment towards the Nigerian
economy was dealt a blow after Moody’s changed the outlook on the government of
Nigeria’s ratings to negative from stable.
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Given how the negative outlook reflects
Moody’s view of increasing risks to the government’s fiscal strength, this
should act as another wakeup call for the nation to diversify and move away
from oil reliance. Weak government finances exacerbated by depressed oil prices
and sluggish economic growth may disrupt fiscal consolidation. With both
monetary and fiscal policy needed to support the Nigerian economy, the mounting
pressures from the fiscal side must not be overlooked.
Speaking of Oil prices, the commodity
spiked to levels not seen in over two months above $59.05 on Thursday. This
comes after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its
allies reached a deal in principle to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels
per day in the first quarter of 2020.
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However, prices later retraced after
OPEC+ failed to offer clarity as it lacked key details of the agreement for
deeper production cuts. One important takeaway from the proposal is that Russia
will be allowed to exclude its condensate volumes from the terms of production,
which could see oil prices trade lower. Another complication in the OPEC deal
remains compliance, with some nations frequently pumping above their target
levels. Until there is a solution to improve compliance, Oil is positioned to
depreciate despite the deeper cuts.
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