Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
A tidal wave of risk aversion engulfed
financial markets on Wednesday, after Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes
against US forces in Iraq.
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Global stocks fell slightly, while Gold
punched above $1600 as escalating tensions in the Middle East accelerated the
flight to safety. Iran’s retaliation has raised fears of a full-blown conflict
with the United States and this negative sentiment is poised to weigh on
emerging markets this week. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air with
markets still in ‘wait and see’ mode until further clarity is provided on the
US-Iran faceoff.
Markets have stabilized to some degree
after the initial burst of volatility with investors taking some reassurance
from the absence of US casualties and the measured tone of the official
responses. President Trump is expected to make a statement later today in
response to the Iranian strikes which should give direction to markets.
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Nevertheless, heightened tensions in
the Middle East will most likely weigh on global risk sentiment, ultimately
denting appetite for emerging market asset and currencies. On a brighter note,
emerging market energy oil exporters such as Nigeria could benefit from higher
oil prices in the short term. Appreciating Oil prices may result in higher
export earnings and government revenues for Africa’s largest economy.
Nigeria’s latest inflation figures may
be published as early as Friday January 11 with markets forecasting consumer
prices to jump to 12.10% in December amid the ongoing border closures. Signs of
inflationary pressures making a return are likely to cool any speculation
around the Central Bank of Nigeria easing monetary policy in Q1. The country’s
economic outlook will remain influenced by Oil price volatility and US-China
trade developments.
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Oil sensitive to geopolitics
The explosive moves witnessed in Oil prices
over the past few days highlight how sensitive the commodity is to geopolitical
shocks.
WTI Crude blasted higher during early
trading on Wednesday, breaking above $65 after Iran fired missiles at air bases
in Iraq housing US troops. Given how this development raises fears of more
tensions in the Middle East, Oil prices are poised to remain volatile in the
near future with all eyes now on President Trump’s reaction and any signs of US
retaliation. It will be interesting to see how far geopolitical shocks support
Oil prices before investors re-direct their focus back towards US-China trade
and global growth.
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Regarding the technical picture, WTI
Crude pared some of its gains after spiking towards $65.65 during the early
parts of Wednesday morning. Bears could re-enter the scene if prices close
below $62.00 with
Gold turbocharged by risk aversion
In other news, Gold exploded higher on
Wednesday, punching above $1600 for the first time in almost seven years as
geopolitical shocks sent investors flocking to safer segments of the market.
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Escalating tensions in the Middle East
have hit global risk appetite, boosting buying sentiment towards safe-haven
assets. Gold bulls remain in the driving seat with further upside expected as
uncertainty supports the flight to safety.
Focusing on the technical picture, the
precious metal is heavily bullish on the daily charts as there have been
consistent higher highs and higher lows. A solid daily close above $1600 may
encourage a move towards $1630. Alternatively, sustained weakness below $1600
could trigger a retracement back towards $1570 and $1555.
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