Dollar fights for
throne
The
story behind the Dollar’s incredible appreciation in recent days continues to
revolve around rising U.S bond yields and easing geopolitical risks.
Market
expectations of higher U.S interest rates have also played a leading role in
the Greenback’s resurgence, with the DXY marching to levels not seen in over
three months, above 91.00. With the Dollar finding support from rate hike
expectations and bullish sentiment towards the U.S economy, are the bulls back
in town? http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
The
main event risk for the currency this week will be the release of U.S GDP
figures for Q1, which are expected to show economic growth cooling as consumer
spending eases. However, an upside surprise in U.S Q1 GDP could boost
confidence in the health of the U.S economy, ultimately elevating King Dollar.
Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index is turning
increasingly bullish on the daily charts. A decisive daily close above 91.00
could result in an incline towards 91.80. Alternatively, if bulls tire and run
out of momentum, prices could dip back towards 90.50 and 90.25, respectively.
Euro dangerously
wobbles above 1.2200
The
Euro remains under the mercy of an appreciating Dollar, with prices struggling
to keep above the 1.2200 support level as of writing.
Market
players will direct their attention towards the European Central Bank meeting
on Thursday where policymakers are widely expected to leave monetary policy
unchanged. However, there could be some action if ECB President Mario Draghi
adopts a cautious stance during the post-meeting press conference. Focusing on
the technical picture, the EURUSD is at risk of tumbling lower if bears are
able to secure a daily close below 1.2200. Previous support at 1.2200 could
transform into a dynamic resistance that encourages a decline lower towards 1.2150
and 1.2090, respectively. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
Commodity
spotlight – WTI Oil
Heightened
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing optimism over OPEC’s
supply cut have injected oil bulls with a renewed sense of confidence.
With
WTI Crude sprinting to levels not seen in over three years, it seems that
market sentiment is turning increasingly bullish towards the commodity. While
further upside could be on the cards for oil in the near term, the
sustainability of the rally is a concern. WTI bulls may be heavily reliant on
geopolitics to keep prices appreciating, which could expose oil to extreme
downside risks if geopolitical tensions start to ease. With rising production
from U.S Shale still a key market theme that continues to weigh on oil prices,
it will be interesting to see how much oil appreciates before bears enter the
scene. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
Focusing
on the technical outlook, WTI Crude is bullish on the daily charts as there
have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. There is scope for prices
to challenge $70.00, providing bulls can defend $67.50.
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