FXTM Research Analyst
Conflicting signals over the direction
of trade between the world’s two largest economies are set to disrupt and
destabilize the positive mood across markets ahead of the G20 showdown.
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The Trump administration wasted no time
in adopting the good cop, bad cop strategy leading up to the trade talks. While
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he is “hopeful” of a US-China trade
deal, President Trump then cited the “Plan B” option, which could see more US
tariffs being imposed on Chinese goods. Investors are likely to remain
extremely wary and cautious leading up to this weekend’s meeting, for fear of
being left empty-handed once again.
In a perfect world, the best-case
scenario for financial markets would be for both sides to find common ground on
trade and secure a breakthrough deal. However, we do not live in a perfect
world as there are many times where investors’ hopes for a breakthrough trade
deal were shattered. The fact that the United States and China have agreed to a
tentative tariff truce ahead of the G20 meeting does suggest that there is
still some light at the end of the trade war tunnel. A market-friendly outcome
will be for both sides to display co-operation and a strong interest in further
negotiations to ease trade tensions that have winded the global economy.
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Given the unpredictability of President
Donald Trump, it would be unwise to be unprepared for a possible scenario where
talks descend into disagreements on trade. Such an outcome will most likely
rattle financial markets as concerns over slowing global growth and sizzling
trade tensions fuel risk aversion.
Dollar cautiously higher ahead of US GDP
King Dollar was thrown a lifeline
earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell cooled investor optimism
around a potential US rate cut in July.
June was certainly a painful trading
month for the Dollar, given how the currency has erased its 2019 gains on
interest rate cut expectations. Where the Greenback trades as we enter the
second half of 2019 will be influenced by US economic data, Fed monetary easing
expectations and the direction of US-China trade talks.
Today, investors will direct their
attention towards the final version of the US first quarter domestic gross
product (GDP) which is projected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. While a report
that matches expectations may support the Dollar, the currency is likely to be
more concerned with the outcome of the G20 talks.
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In regards to the technical picture, the
Dollar Index (DXY) is trading marginally above 96.30 on the daily charts. The
Greenback could experience a technical rebound towards 96.50 in the near term.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold prices struggled for direction on
Thursday morning as Washington dished out mixed signals over the direction of
trade talks with China ahead of the G20 summit.
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Appetite towards the precious metal was
dealt a blow earlier in the week after Fed officials toned down expectations
over the Fed cutting interest rates next month. Although a stabilizing Dollar
is also adding to the factors weighing on Gold, the precious metal remains
resilient and well supported by core themes. For as long as concerns over
slowing global growth, US interest rate cut expectations and trade tensions
remain on investors’ radar, Gold is shielded from downside shocks.
In regards to the technical picture,
the precious metal is bullish on the daily charts. Gold seems to be in the
process of a technical correction towards $1390 which may become the new higher
low. Should this point prove to be reliable support, Gold has the potential to
rebound towards $1424.
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