Monday, 3 June 2019

NIGERIA FOREIGN RESERVES RISE IN MAY; GOLD SHINES

Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Research Analyst

The Naira is set to witness further stability against the Dollar after Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $295.12m to $45.087bn in May. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html

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Rising foreign reserves should provide the extra ammunition needed for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to defend the Naira against a tornado of domestic and external headwinds. Nevertheless, the nation still remains exposed to oil price volatility. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html It is widely known that Nigeria relies heavily on crude exports which account for over 90% of exports earnings and over 70% of government revenues. The fact that oil prices are sinking towards $55 today may lead to a fall in reserves in the coming months which has the potential to impact exchange rate stability, inflation and economic growth.

Dollar blinks and loses hold on throne
Dollar bulls were nowhere to be found today despite risk aversion accelerating the flight to safety. Market fears over Trump’s trade disputes with Mexico and China negatively impacting the US economy are weighing on the US Dollar.  http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html While the Greenback still remains a prime destination of safety in times of uncertainty, the question is for how long? When keeping in mind how the Fed funds futures are currently pointing to a near 70% chance of a rate cut by September, the Dollar’s upside may be limited. In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index has the potential to sink back towards 97.50 if a weekly close below 98.00 is achieved.

Fellow Nigerians, are you aware that our crude oil will soon become useless? Yes, it will, in no distant time, become valueless owing to the fact that the countries that rely on it as their only source of energy are developing more affordable alternative sources of energy. When this finally happens, what will we do? How are we currently preparing for this imminent economic doom? Which other sector will continue to stabilize our economy? Nigerians, the only solution is developing the agricultural sector. In fact, this is the only solution. Very soon, the major source of revenue will become agriculture and agro-exports. How are you positioning yourself to play big in agro-export business? Why don’t you get a practical manual that explains the stages of export trade from processing and packaging of commodities to receipt of payment by the foreign buyers? Yes, arm yourself with the contemporary trends in export trade. This manual explains export operations, export management, export documentations and methods of payment in export trade? Yes, it is a contemporary step-by-step guide to export trade. It tells all the contemporary dynamics in export trade. To get it, click on this link: http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is extended gains on Friday amid news of unexpected tariffs on Mexican goods, while ongoing US-China trade tensions continued to support safe-haven demand. A depreciating Dollar is supporting the upside with prices trading marginally below $1300 as of writing. Market expectations over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2019 coupled with concerns over slowing global growth are likely to ensure Gold remains buoyed moving forward. Technical traders will continue to closely observe how Gold behaves below the $1300. A solid breakout above this point should signal a move higher towards $1324.

Oil set to register first monthly loss of 2019
Oil is on track to register its first monthly loss of 2019 with WTI Crude sinking towards $55 thanks to Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Mexico and concerns over rising US gasoline stockpiles. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html It is becoming increasingly clear that oil markets remain highly reactive to news around supply and demand factors. Such market dynamics will frame the upcoming OPEC meeting in June as a pivotal event that will shape Oil’s outlook for the rest of the year. Even if OPEC+ decide to extend their supply cuts into the second half of the year, this may be overshadowed by concerns over US-China trade tensions impacting the demand for oil as global growth slows.

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