FXTM Research Analyst
A renewed sense of optimism permeates
across financial markets this morning after the United States and China agreed
to restart trade talks at the G20 summit over the weekend.
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Appetite towards emerging market
currencies could improve in the week ahead as easing trade tensions uplift risk
sentiment. It certainly will be another eventful trading week for the Nigerian
economy, as the nation publishes updates on its unemployment rate,
Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI.
There will be a strong focus on the
unemployment rate for Q1 which should offer key insight into the health of the
labour force during the first quarter of 2019. Should the unemployment rate and
PMI data for June disappoint, expectations are set to heighten over the Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) possibly cutting interest rates again to stimulate growth.
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Outside of Nigeria, global sentiment is
set to remain dictated by US-China trade developments, the OPEC meeting and US
jobs report on Friday. While the feel-good effect from easing-trade tensions is
likely to uplift market sentiment, the question remains for how long? Should
talks drag out or tensions flare up, global equites and emerging markets will
feel the pain.
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The outcome of the OPEC meeting will
certainly be significant to the Nigerian economy, given how the nation is an
energy exporter. All eyes will be on Friday’s US jobs report which will shape
US rate cut expectations and the Dollar’s valuation as the second half of 2019
gets under way.
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