Monday, 1 July 2019


Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Research Analyst

A renewed sense of optimism permeates across financial markets this morning after the United States and China agreed to restart trade talks at the G20 summit over the weekend.

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Appetite towards emerging market currencies could improve in the week ahead as easing trade tensions uplift risk sentiment. It certainly will be another eventful trading week for the Nigerian economy, as the nation publishes updates on its unemployment rate, Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI.

There will be a strong focus on the unemployment rate for Q1 which should offer key insight into the health of the labour force during the first quarter of 2019. Should the unemployment rate and PMI data for June disappoint, expectations are set to heighten over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) possibly cutting interest rates again to stimulate growth.

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Outside of Nigeria, global sentiment is set to remain dictated by US-China trade developments, the OPEC meeting and US jobs report on Friday. While the feel-good effect from easing-trade tensions is likely to uplift market sentiment, the question remains for how long? Should talks drag out or tensions flare up, global equites and emerging markets will feel the pain.

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The outcome of the OPEC meeting will certainly be significant to the Nigerian economy, given how the nation is an energy exporter. All eyes will be on Friday’s US jobs report which will shape US rate cut expectations and the Dollar’s valuation as the second half of 2019 gets under way.

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