FXTM Research Analyst
Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions
across the globe have forced major central banks to embark on a monetary easing
cycle to protect their respective economies.
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The Federal Reserve is expected to cut
interest rates for the first time in over 10 years later this month, while
central banks in Asia and Africa including the South African Central Bank have
already made a move. With economic conditions in Nigeria slowly stabilizing and
inflationary pressures slowly moderating towards single digits, the CBN has the
opportunity to join the monetary easing bandwagon.
Lower interest rates in Nigeria will
stimulate consumption, encourage businesses to increase investment spending and
give banks more incentive to borrow to corporations and households. Given how
household consumption is roughly 80% of GDP, a rate cut will be supportive of
growth potential as the nation diversifies away from Oil reliance.
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Dollar humbled by IMF and Fed doves
It has been another rough and rocky
trading week for the Dollar thanks to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and dovish commentary by Fed officials. Earlier in the
week, the IMF said the US Dollar was overvalued by 6%-12% - ultimately forcing
investors to re-evaluate the Dollar’s current valuation.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of
New York President, John Williams,
said that central banks must “take swift action when faced with adverse
economic conditions”. Also, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, said yesterday that policymakers “don’t need to
wait until things get so bad” before cutting interest rates.
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Such commentary from Fed officials is
reinforcing expectations of a US interest rate cut at the end of this month.
The Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure on the daily charts with prices
trading marginally below 97.00 as of writing. Repeated weakness below 97.00
could open a path lower towards 96.60.
Commodity spotlight – WTI Oil
WTI Crude tumbled roughly six percent
this week as US inventories jumped by over nine million barrels last week,
which sparked fears over global demand for crude lagging behind rising output.
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The slowdown in global growth has
overshadowed market sentiment for Oil, as rising geopolitical tensions have
failed to live up to their potential of sending prices higher. Any further
deterioration in the global demand outlook could mean nothing but more pain for
oil markets. On the bright side, markets can take some comfort in the OPEC+
decision to extend its supply cuts through March 2020, which should help
support Oil prices over the coming months.
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