Tuesday, 6 August 2019

NIGERIA – WEEK AHEAD

Lukman Otunuga,
Senior Research Analyst, FXTM

Investors should brace for potential volatility across Nigerian markets in the week ahead, despite the economic calendar void of Tier 1 data releases.

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Persistent trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, the Chinese Yuan weakening past the psychological 7 level, Brexit developments and depreciating oil prices on persistent global growth fears are themes that impact Nigeria’s economy.

On the bright side, between January and June this year, the largest economy in Africa recorded a total investment commitment of $15.15 billion in a handful of sectors across the economy. Given how Nigeria remains on a quest to break away from the chains of oil reliance, this development will bode well for sentiment and overall investor confidence towards the nation.

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Market players should keep a very close watch on Oil prices which remain pressured by demand side concerns and the Dollar’s valuation following last week’s hawkish US rate cut. The combination of Dollar strength and weakness across oil markets is negative for emerging market energy producers with Nigeria falling into the category.

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With Nigeria still on a fragile path to recovery, the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) is positioned to cut interest rates again in the second half of 2019. The Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut certainly offered the CBN and many other emerging markets central banks the breathing room needed to ease monetary policy and support their local economies.

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