Thursday, 19 September 2019

HOT TOPIC COMMENT ON OECD REPORT

Lukman Otunuga 
FXTM Senior Research Analyst

A darker mood awaits financial markets after the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its global growth forecast to 2.9% for this year and 3% in 2020.

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Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China have sapped investor confidence, compounded to policy uncertainty and dampened risk sentiment across global financial markets. Given how China’s GDP is projected to expand by 6.1% in 2019 and 5.7% in 2020 compared to the 6.6% achieved in 2018, this presents a significant risk for emerging markets, especially those who have fostered close trade ties with China.

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Decelerating global growth may result in falling demand for crude which is bad news for emerging market energy exporters like Nigeria. Today’s gloomy report from the OECD could speed up the global monetary easing train as more central banks defend their respective economies from unfavourable macroeconomic conditions.

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It will be interesting to see whether the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cuts interest rates in September or decides to catch the fast-moving train at a later stop.

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