Monday, 16 September 2019

NIGERIA – WEEK AHEAD

Lukman Otunuga  
FXTM Senior Research Analyst

It will be a relatively quiet week for the Nigerian economy data-wise with the latest inflation figures and balance of trade figures under the spotlight.

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Given how the European Central Bank (ECB) has joined the global easing train in the face of plateauing global growth and trade uncertainty, this widens the path for central banks across the world to support their respective economies. Much attention will be directed towards the inflation figures for August which may shape monetary policy expectations for the rest of 2019.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 11.1% year-over-year last month. There will also be a strong focus on the balance of trade for Q2 which will be closely scrutinized by investors for signs of low oil prices impacting exports.

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In the commodity markets, Oil prices soared 20% as markets reopened to trade near $72 before surrendering half of its gains a few hours later. The drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields over the weekend have caused a disruption of 5.7 million barrels per day, which is almost 5% of global oil supply.

With the dynamics influencing oil prices swinging back to supply side from demand side factors, oil bulls could remain in control as geopolitical tensions hit global supply. A sustained appreciation in oil prices will be good news for emerging market energy exporters like Nigeria.

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Market sentiment is positioned to remain driven by geopolitical tensions following the drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil fields, US-China trade developments, Brexit and global stimulus hopes.

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The main risk in the week ahead will be the FOMC meeting and press conference. With a rate cut by the Federal Reserve a foregone conclusion, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s conference. Will the Fed fulfill market expectations by signalling further rate cuts in Q4 and beyond? This is a question on the mind of many investors.

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