Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
The Nigerian economy still remains on a
rocky road to recovery in the face of depressed oil prices, US-China trade
uncertainty and fears over decelerating global growth.
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Although the nation’s GDP expanded
1.94% during the second quarter of 2019, it is unlikely to meet the
government’s 3% growth targets this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has projected Nigeria’s growth to expand 2.3% this year and 2.5% in 2020.
Despite the ongoing push for economic diversification, 90% of foreign exchange
earnings and 70% of government revenues are still attained from oil sales.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria can
be commended on its effort to promote Naira stability, this has come at the
expense of falling reserves which decreased to $42.1 billion in September.
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Much attention will be directed towards
the pending foreign exchange reserves data for October scheduled for release on
Wednesday. Further signs of reserves declining amid weak oil prices and
intervention by the CBN is likely to weigh on the Naira.
Market mood brightens on trade deal optimism
The mood across financial markets
continues to brighten after President Donald Trump said that Washington “was
ahead of schedule” on a trade deal with China.
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This encouraging news has certainly
injected global equity bulls with a renewed sense of confidence as optimism
increases that the two largest economies in the world will sign “phase one ” of
the trade agreement soon. Shares across Asia are pushing higher on Tuesday amid
the risk-on sentiment, after the S&P 500 hit an all time record high
overnight on the back of trade hopes and prospects of lower interest rates by
the Fed. The positive vibe from Asian markets should also support European
stocks and potentially Wall Street later this afternoon.
Fourth time lucky? Johnson seeks snap election again
There was little to cheer about on
Monday in Brexit news despite the European Union granting Britain a flexible
three-month extension to the Brexit process until 31 January 2020.
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Although this has prevented the UK from
leaving the European Union on October 31 without a deal, it is simply kicking
the can down the road. This sentiment is clearly being reflected in the British
Pound which offered a fairly muted reaction to the third Brexit extension.
With British lawmakers rejecting Prime
Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election in December, where do we go
from here? While Johnson is expected to try again for an early election on
Tuesday, history could repeat itself for the fourth time in two months. Until
investors are offered proper direction and clarity on Brexit, Sterling’s rise
may be capped below 1.30.
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Dollar waits for FOMC meeting
The Dollar held steady against a basket
of major currencies on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With
markets widely expecting the Fed to dish out another insurance rate cut in face
of trade uncertainty and global growth concerns, much attention will be directed
towards Jerome Powell’s press conference. Should Powell sound less dovish than
expected, investors are likely to revaluate whether the Federal Reserve will
cut interest rates in December.
Gold in the spotlight
Gold has stumbled into the trading week
under pressure thanks to the improving market mood and risk-on sentiment. Given
how prices are trading below the $1500 level, further downside could be on the
cards in the short term.
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However, investor expectations over the
Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October coupled with Brexit
uncertainty should stimulate appetite towards the precious metal in the medium
term. The longer-term outlook will remain influenced by US-China trade
developments and global growth concerns.
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