Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
The latest inflation figures from
Nigeria will most likely deter the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from cutting
interest rates anytime.
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Consumer prices in Nigeria accelerated
for the fourth straight month in December last year, hitting its highest level
since April 2018 at 11.98% as food prices continued to climb amid the on-going
border closure.
With inflationary pressures making an
unwelcome return into early 2020 and moving further away from the CBN 9% upper
target band, the Naira will continue to be vulnerable. Although central bank
Governor Godwin Emefiele said in November 2019 that “the impact of the border
closures on inflation is temporary,” this may be questioned if inflation
continues to escalate in 2020.
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Rising inflationary pressures should
force the CBN to maintain status quo on interest rates next week. However, all
eyes will be on the loan to deposit ratio for banks which has been set to 65%.
With monetary easing out of the
question, the central bank could increase the loan to deposit rate to 70% in an
effort to boost economic growth through investments in Nigeria’s real sector,
particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.
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