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It was
only last week that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) technically devalued the
Naira at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) windows of the nation’s foreign
exchange markets. While this move may attract foreign exchange investors due to
the convergence of the multiple exchange rates, it may end up stoking
inflationary pressures and complicating the implementation of the 2020 budget
which predicted N305 per dollar. The CBN also announced a reduction of interest
rates in all its intervention facilities from nine per cent to five per cent
per annum for one year while pledging to inject over N1 trillion across
critical sectors of the economy. With the CBN going all in out in shielding the
Nigerian economy from the coronavirus outbreak, speculation is rising over the
bank cutting benchmark interest rates from 13.5% in March.
Risk appetite
returns as Fed goes limitless…but for how long?
As
monetary policy bazookas prove ineffective against the coronavirus-induced
market chaos, central banks are taking unprecedented steps in defending their
respective economies against the pandemic.
Have
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Over
the last 24 hours, the Federal Reserve dropped an atomic monetary bomb by
announcing an open ended unlimited quantitative easing program in an effort to
promote stability across financial markets.
Although the initial reaction was somewhat mixed with shares on Wall
Street closing in the red overnight, investors seem to be taking heart from the
Fed’s limitless pledge, as Asian stocks roar back to life this morning and US
futures jump. However, this positive market mood is unlikely to last given how
the Senate once again failed to move ahead with a $2 trillion US coronavirus
stimulus package at the start of the week.
If the
global economy is a tin bucket filled with water, the coronavirus outbreak has
drilled multiple holes into it and monetary policy bazookas are unable to stop
the water from leaking away. While fiscal policies could plug some of the
holes, the solution may have to be a new bucket which in this instance is a
cure to the coronavirus.
Have
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More Pound pain
as UK enters lockdown?
Sterling
could be set for more weakness after Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a
three-week lockdown to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. With
“non-essential” shops and services being ordered to shut as part of the strict
new measures, consumption could be hit, stimulating fears over the United
Kingdom entering a recession. The latest flash manufacturing and services PMI
data for March will be released later this morning. The Pound may end up
offering a muted response to the data as investors focus on the three-week
national lockdown and what it means for the economy.
Focusing
on the technical outlook, a picture is worth a thousand words and this remains
true for GBPUSD which is trading at levels not seen since 1985. Consolidation
at the lows points to further downside with the first key level of interest at
1.1400. A breakdown below this level could open the flood gates towards 1.1300
and lower.
Wow!!!
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Commodity
spotlight – Gold
Everyone
has wanted a shiny piece of Gold over the last 24 hours, after the Fed took
unprecedented measures to defend the US economy from the coronavirus outbreak.
The
precious metal has appreciated over 2.7% since the start of the week and has
the potential to extend gains on Dollar weakness. A sense of unease over the
coronavirus developments and fears around a global recession should support
appetite for gold moving forward. Looking at the technical picture, the
precious metal has extended gains this morning with prices trading around $1575
as of writing. An intraday breakout above $1580 could swing open the doors
towards $1600.
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