And Currency Strategy, FXTM
Ever
thought that it could be imaginable to see the price of U.S oil valued at less
than a pizza? Or even a slice of pizza? How about for it to actually cost to
sell U.S crude? All of this was previously thought to be unthinkable, but it
became very real for traders as the price of U.S oil turned negative for the
first time in history. WTI futures set to expire suffered a disastrous plunge
of more than 300%, sinking as low as -$40 to begin the new trading week.
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20
April 2020 will be remembered as a dark and disastrous day for the oil industry
and witnessing the selling unfold was like watching a fire in the distance grow
ablaze in an uncontrollable manner. This will have alarm bells ringing with the
noise stretching all the way from the United States to Canada, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, Nigeria as well as multiple other destinations simultaneously. It is
important to recognize that the price carnage was for May contracts set to
expire imminently with June contracts still valued at around $20 although no
one can say never say never or that lightning will not strike twice if asked
the question on whether upcoming contracts could follow a similar path of
destruction in valuation.
There
is a tremendous oversupply in the market and simply nowhere left for storage,
meaning that until someone can find a place to keep what is produced that
limited buyers will be in the market. All of this is happening as many in the
world remain on lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The International
Energy Agency (IEA) project that demand for crude can drop this month by
29million barrels per day, significantly more than the historic OPEC+ agreement
where producers have agreed to cut production by nearly 10million barrels per
day from May.
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It was
already inevitable that oil producers worldwide would be asked to cut
production output by an even greater scale than what agreed, and some might
attempt to curtail production immediately rather than when the upcoming OPEC+
agreement was initially set to commence. Producers would still need a helping
hand from worldwide restrictions being lifted with many of our economic engines
not functioning properly due to the coronavirus pandemic to strengthen the
prospects of higher oil price.
Elsewhere
global stock markets will be on the watchlist to see if they follow a path of
weakness in light of the destruction that took place in oil price. So far
trading in Asia has shown signs of this, although some of the fluctuation is
thought to be a reaction to reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is critically
ill.
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Should
risk-off prevail, a lack of risk appetite can see traders question whether the
recent recoveries in global stock markets are justifiable. This would also pose
a question for emerging markets and their currencies, including the Korean Won,
Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira and South African Rand. The latter of which
would be tested should the USD restore itself as the go-to currency during
coronavirus uncertainty.
I do
feel that there are prospects for another drive higher in the Greenback. The
world has become optimistic that lockdown restrictions will be eased and while
that sounds all well and good, there is a need for caution that some of the
recent feel-good headlines and hopeful declining rates of infections are more a
case of lockdown restrictions doing their job rather than the danger of the
virus carrying less infection risks.
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If
this train of thought picks up momentum and caution becomes the narrative
rather than light at the end of the tunnel the USD, JPY and Gold can see returning
demand as safe havens. As well as emerging markets, some of the other
currencies that can decline in this type of scenario include the Euro,
Australian Dollar and British Pound.
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