Market Analyst at FXTM
Most
Asian assets are set to end the week on a risk-off note, with regional
currencies now weaker against the US Dollar, while major stock indices tracked
overnight losses on Wall Street. Chinese stocks are taking a breather from
their recent rich vein of form, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI
300 unable to build on eight consecutive days of advances, as US futures are
falling at the time of writing. Still, the CSI 300 is trading around a 5-year
high, while the Shanghai Composite Index remains at its highest levels since
2018. The two benchmarks have both posted month-to-date surges of around 15
percent, which far exceeds the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s five percent climb so
far in July.
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While
global equities blissfully ignored the deteriorating economic conditions around
the world in the previous quarter, the moment of reckoning could arrive when
the US earnings season kicks off next week. The second-quarter results are set
to lay bare the pandemic’s impact to a greater extent compared to the previous
quarter’s figures and this could prove to be one of Wall Street’s worst
earnings seasons. It remains to be seen whether market participants have the
stomach to digest such despairing numbers.
However,
the forward guidance from companies could have a more pivotal role in dictating
near-term market sentiment. After all, investors are desperate for further
clarity, considering that four out of five S&P 500 listed companies
withheld guidance during the last earnings update. That suggests that the 40
percent climb in the S&P 500 since March 23 has been largely fuelled by
blind optimism.
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Should
greater clarity start feeding through over the coming weeks, that could be the
catalyst to shake the S&P 500 out of its tight 230-point range that has
been adhered to since June. Still, given the unprecedented amount of stimulus
measures already at work across major economies, one shouldn’t expect any
pullback in risk assets to be overly drastic. On the flip side, should the
upcoming earnings season bring with it greater optimism surrounding the
post-pandemic recovery, that is set to give equity bulls the green light to
chase further gains.
Gold remains at
highest levels since 2011
Meanwhile,
investors are clearly hedging their exposure to risk, even though Gold prices
have dipped below the psychologically important $1800 level. With Bullion on
the cusp of five consecutive weeks of gains, the precious metal is reflecting
the dynamics between hopes surrounding the global economic recovery and
enduring concerns over the persistent nature of the pandemic.
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Given
subdued US real yields and the stubborn risk aversion in the markets, this is
clearly a supportive environment for Gold, with a repeat of the September 5,
2011 record closing price of $1900.20 in its sights.
Spot
Gold could even set a new record high this year if another bolt of risk
aversion courses through the markets, especially if the green shoots of the
global economic recovery are snuffed out by another round of lockdowns across
major economies, or if severe doubts are cast on global policymakers’ ability
to support their respective economies. The threat of spiking geopolitical
tensions is also lurking in the background, and if that materialises, it too
could serve as another major tailwind for Bullion.
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On the
other hand, a global vaccine would send the all-clear signal for risk assets at
the expense of the yellow metal. More concrete signs that the global economy is
set for a swifter-than-expected recovery could also pare some of Gold’s recent
gains.
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