Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
The Naira has marched into September with a
renewed sense of confidence, rallying to its strongest level since April on the
black markets as supplies of Dollar surged ahead an auction set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
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On the
parallel markets, the Naira is trading around 435 per Dollar compared to the
465 witnessed on the last day of August. It looks like local currency is
deriving strength from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s announcement in resuming
the sales of foreign exchange to operators of the Bureau de Change (BDC) from September 7.
Over
the past few months, the CBN has found it challenging to clear the backlog of
foreign exchange demand by foreign investors as the havoc wrought by COVID-19
created shockwaves across the economy. Dollar shortages were further
intensified by depressed Oil prices which account for more than 90% of foreign
exchange earnings and over 70% of government revenues.
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The
economic outlook for Nigeria remains clouded by uncertainty due to COVID-19 and
shaky Oil prices. GDP is expected to contract anywhere from 3% to 6% in 2020
with most of the damage from the pandemic seen in the first half of the year.
Although a weak recovery is predicted in 2021, this will depend on oil prices
and the government’s efforts in implementing critical structural reforms to
reducing Nigeria heavy dependence on Oil.
Gold wobbles as
Dollar fights back
Gold
has woken up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, struggling to nurse
wounds inflicted from Wednesday’s hefty depreciation as king Dollar rebounded
from two-year lows.
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The
precious metal has lost almost 2% since the start of the September and could
extend losses in the short term if the Dollar fights for its thrown and
“risk-on” remains the name of the game. However, when looking at the key themes
influencing Gold, the medium to longer term outlook points north despite the
possible weakness in the near term.
Buying
sentiment towards Gold could be dented by a sense of confidence over the world
economy recovering quicker than expected, while renewed US-China trade hopes
and optimism around a coronavirus vaccine may boost attraction towards riskier
assets at the expense of safe-havens.
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However,
rising coronavirus cases in the United States, political uncertainty ahead of
November’s presidential elections and Brexit drama among other negative themes
may drain investor confidence, ultimately accelerating the flight to safety.
On top
of this, low-to-negative government bond yields, unprecedented monetary
stimulus and handsome fiscal packages should continue sweetening appetite for
the precious metal for the rest of 2020. Although economic data from major
economies have beat estimates, the overall shaky macroeconomic and geopolitical
landscape may ensure the Gold remains a hotspot of safety.
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Looking
at the technical picture, prices remain in a wide range on the daily timeframe
with support at $1910 and resistance around $1985. It looks like the precious
metal is under pressure with $1910 acting as the first level of interest. A
breakdown below this point could encourage a decline towards $1890. Should
$1910 prove to be reliable support, prices could rebound back towards $1950,
before potentially testing $1985.
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