Global markets are now revisiting a familiar script, with investors pushing broad asset classes higher on more signs pointing to the US economic recovery. Stock markets Stateside posted new record highs and the futures contracts are holding steady at the time of writing. The S&P 500 is boasting a year-to-date gain once more, led by energy and financial stocks this week. Tech companies remain favoured by investors amidst a string of better-than-expected earnings, pushing the Nasdaq 100 to its highest-ever close.
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Oil prices are also getting in on
the act, with WTI futures set for a fifth consecutive daily gain to reach its
best levels in over a year. This return to the way things were is also marked
by signs of subdued day-trader mania, with GameStop having plummeted almost 90
percent from its 2021 peak amid the WallStreetBets-fueled frenzy. However, the
stock is still showing gains of 184 percent so far this year.
Stronger jobs recovery to set base for more gains in
risk-asset
Risk sentiment has been buoyed by
Thursday’s lower-than-expected US jobless claims data, which marked its third
weekly decline and lowest reading since late November.
This positive surprise has
already prompted economists to make upward revisions to their forecasts for the
January non-farm payrolls data due later today. Markets are expecting the
headline print to increase by around 105,000 jobs, which would be an about-turn
from the 140,000 positions lost in December.
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But, the unemployment rate is set
to remain unchanged at 6.7 percent, which is still some three percentage points
higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. This elevated figure still underscores
the need for more government support, even though President Biden’s $1.9
trillion proposal risks being diluted if we see evidence today that the job
market recovery is truly underway.
With more states easing their
respective virus-curbing measures as the Covid-19 vaccine continues to make its
way through the US population, the labour market may find itself on firmer
ground in the weeks and months ahead. On top of that, economic conditions are
expected to be restored at a faster clip once more fiscal stimulus is unleashed
upon households and businesses.
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Such a risk-on narrative is
what’s prompting market participants to push risk assets higher and this
momentum in the markets could gain more impetus with a better-than-expected NFP
print.
Gold declines on Dollar resilience
However, the US dollar and gold
are apparently not singing the same tune as the rest of the choir.
The greenback has defied
consensus calls for weakness this year, which in turn has sent bullion to its
lowest levels since early December. The precious metal has also struggled
against the steepening US yield curve. The idea that the US economic recovery
would lead to faster inflationary pressures has not played out in gold’s
favour, to the chagrin of the precious metal’s bulls.
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With spot prices now trying to claw their way back to the psychologically important $1800 level, gold is set to have a battle on its hands over the near-term in trying to get on the market’s good side. A technical death cross, when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, looks imminent which indicates the potential for a major selloff.
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