 |
| Xi Jinping |
Xi’s
speech calmed markets by responding to all of Donald Trump’s concerns, without
even mentioning him. Now it’s time for China to provide specific figures and a
timeline on how these reforms will be implemented. I think what was achieved
today is likely to reduce trade tensions and buy some extra time. Whether the U.S.
will wave back with an olive branch to China remains to be seen, but certainly,
the probability of a full-blown trade war is now much lower than a week ago.
Asian
equities were all in the green this morning with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei
225 climbing more than 1%. Futures are also indicating a positive start to
Europe and U.S. – the S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% at the time of writing.
However,
the new geopolitical risks over the increased conflict in Syria cannot be
ignored. This came after the U.S. imposed a wide range of financial sanctions
on Russian assets, causing stocks to suffer their worst performance in four
years and the ruble falling as much as 4.1%.
Russia warned the U.S. that any military reprisal to Saturdays’ chemical
attack in Syria could have “grave repercussions”. Will U.S. and Russia go into
a confrontation in Syria? This likely depends on Trump’s decision over the next
24 hours, but the risks are high.
Although
oil prices may have risen on hopes that trade tensions will ease, investors may
start pricing in a much higher risk premium. So far, it seems the conflict in
Syria has no impact on the supply from the Middle East, but if the battle
spills outside the Syrian border, I expect another $10 risk premium to be added
to the current price.
The
economic calendar is light today, so expect currency traders to continue taking
the cue from equity markets.
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