FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
A ‘risk-on’ vibe is sweeping across
financial markets after the US Trade administration (USTR) announced that it
will remove some items from its target list and delay the 10% tariffs on
certain Chinese goods until December.
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This unexpected development is
stimulating risk appetite while reviving hopes that the two largest economies
in the world will eventually find some middle ground on trade. Asian stocks
rallied on Wednesday thanks to the improving market mood and this positivity
should support European shares.
While this burst of positivity and
renewed optimism over China and the United States resuming trade talks in two
weeks is good news for global sentiment, investors should remain cautious. It
is worth keeping in mind that the US is still moving forward with 10% tariffs
on much of the $300 billion in Chinese imports first disclosed in May. Global
equity bears can still make an unwelcome return if tensions arise before the
scheduled talks in two weeks, especially if geopolitical risks and global
growth concerns dent investor confidence.
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Chinese Yuan roars back to life
A return of risk appetite sent the
offshore Yuan marching to a fresh one-week high against the Dollar on Tuesday.
The USDCNH tumbled below the 7.00 level
as easing trade tensions boosted investor appetite for the Chinese Yuan.
However, appetite towards the currency was later dampened on Wednesday by
disappointing retail sales figures and industrial output figures, which fell to
its slowest rate in 17 years in July. Nevertheless, the offshore Yuan still has
potential to extend gains against the Dollar as easing tensions sweeten
appetite for emerging market currencies. The USDCNH has scope to test 7.00
should 7.05 prove to be reliable resistance.
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Oil rides higher on easing trade tensions
Oil bulls wasted no time in shifting to
a higher gear on Tuesday following the Trump administration’s unexpected
pull-back from a hardline stance on Chinese trade.
Oil prices have scope to push higher as
easing trade tensions reduce fears over slowing global growth and faltering
demand for Crude. The improving market mood should also support WTI Crude with
prices trading around $56.35 as of writing.
The daily close above $56.50 should encourage a move higher towards
$57.43.
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Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold lost some of its allure on
Tuesday, depreciating almost $50 from a 6-year high at $1535 after the United
States surprised markets by delaying tariffs on some Chinese goods.
While Gold is seen extending losses in
the near term amid the risk-on mood, the precious metal remains shielded by
various core market themes. For as long as geopolitical tensions, Brexit
uncertainty, global growth concerns and central banks easing monetary policy
remain key themes, Gold bulls are in control.
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Technical traders will continue to
monitor how prices behave above the $1485 level. A breakdown below this point
may open a path back towards $1470.
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