Monday, 19 August 2019


Lukman Otunuga,
Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Lingering concerns over a global recession will continue influencing market sentiment in the week ahead, with world equities, emerging markets and riskier currencies in the direct firing line. Although treasury yields are recovering from record lows, the movements in bond markets are poised to be closely monitored by investors.

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In Nigeria, there will be a strong focus on the second quarter GDP report which should provide fresh insight into the health of the Nigerian economy. A disappointing figure is seen fuelling expectations over the Central Bank of Nigeria cutting interest rates. Markets are predicting growth of 1.8% during the second quarter of 2019.

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Across the Atlantic, Dollar traders will be closely looking at July’s FOMC minutes for clues on the future pace of rate cuts. Market expectations over a September rate should rise if the minutes are presented with a dovish touch. However, some are still questioning whether the Fed will move forward with further rate cuts given how US retail sales grew 0.7% in July and the latest job report suggested moderate growth.

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This week’s major risk event will be Thursday’s annual meeting at Wyoming where leaders from major central banks gather. If major central banks express a readiness to cut interest rates further and implement new quantitative easing programs, the mood across markets has the potential to improve.

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Appetite towards Gold will be influenced by trade developments, the Dollar’s valuation and global growth concerns. The precious metal could still hit $1550 once bulls can secure control above $1530.

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