Barrister Dr. Jimoh Ibrahim, CFR |
Interestingly,
appointing ministers without portfolio is not President Buhari’s creation. It
has happened a number of times in this country that ministers were appointed
without portfolio. In the Jonathan administration, for instance, there were
three ministers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. That was when oil was
selling at $120 per barrel! Now Buhari has to appoint his own ministers when
the selling price of oil is $47 per barrel, while the cost of producing that
same barrel is $48, which translates to gross income at negative of one dollar
per barrel! This probably explains the concept of ministers without portfolio.
Every
country faces different wicked problems. Nigeria’s problem at this time is lack
of resources to fund the economy. This may be a small problem compared to some
of the wicked problems confronting better economies in the world. For instance,
Japan, which has the enviable record
of the most prominent investment country in the world, with her investment in
US Treasury Bills of 1.3 trillion dollars, far and above China’s record
investment in US Treasury Bills of 1.2 trillion, is today confronted with the
problem of aging population. By the year 2030, 50% of Japan’s population will
be above the age of 70 years, while a mere 30% of the population will be below
the age of 30. A wicked problem!
The
government of Japan will be spending a lot on welfare benefits for old people.
That being so, who will do the jobs? Again, 20% of the population in the productive
age bracket is largely working outside Japan, as most Japanese products are
produced outside Japan. Compounding this interesting problem is the fact that
about 100 Japanese companies that are operating in Japan currently invested
over 100 billion dollars in Japan bonds rather than spending the money on
expansion of their companies. It is not easy for Japan to import labour from
overseas and Japan is not friendly to immigrants. As one scholar said, it may
be easier to learn the mathematical logic behind electronic production than
learning Japanese language.
China
is about the largest economy in the world, controlling about 12 trillion
dollars of the world’s 70 trillion balance sheet, with over 1.2 trillion in
cash investment in US bonds. Despite all these, all is not well with China. And
if there is anything to be learnt from current happenings in China, it is
largely that the Chinese economy is under great watch, as the current depletion
on the economy may create a new recession for the entire world economy. And if
China is to withdraw massively from her treasury bond investment in the US
economy, then we may as well prepare for a new financial crisis, as such
singular effort will lead to increase in interest rates, which will further
push inflation and unemployment up as the cost of money goes up!
This is
definitely a more wicked problem than Nigeria’s. Professor Peter Williamson, despite the rolling data on China, has
expressed optimism on the continuous growth of China. The respected scholar
warns breakthrough innovators to be serious in their response to cost
innovation in China. Prof. Williamson maintains that doing nothing is not an
option, as the dragon companies continue their visit from China. Muhammadou Kah (Former Vice Chancellor,
The University of Gambia) has dropped his earlier views on China in favour of
Williamson’s!
The general
argument is that the US is the highest debtor and the richest country in the
world today. The fact remains that countries invest their money in US bonds out
of trust and belief in stability of that economy. For instance, both China and
Japan invested about 2.5 trillion dollars in US bonds. It does appear that
buying US bonds effortlessly by various countries is leading to giving free
money to the US, thereby increasing her debt to nations. Is that a wicked
problem?
Nigeria has
no money to spend on capital projects. For instance, total amount allocated to
capital projects in the 2015 budget is about $300 million, for a population of
over 167 million! While President Jonathan did not commission any capital
project in his last one year in office, President Buhari has been able to flag
off one road project in the South since he became president.
The Nigerian
constitution puts a burden on the president in the appointment of ministers,
notwithstanding the resources of the nation. This is understandable, given the
concept of equality of states, a condition for our federalism. The president
has discharged that responsibility. And interestingly, the Constitution does
not say in express terms that those appointed ministers should be given
portfolios. The critical problem here is that if we borrow to fund recurrent
expenditure, do we increase that problem by appointing more ministers,
assigning them portfolios and borrowing to fund their offices, including their
feeding and accommodation?
On the other
hand, if ministers are appointed without portfolios, are they part-time members
of the cabinet who will make suggestions at cabinet meetings and go home
thereafter, while government will make use of their advice where necessary.
Otherwise, how do we solve this wicked problem of lack of resources? Maybe “a wicked problem should have a wicked solution,” according
to Bimbo Busari.
The world
will be converging on Turkey early next week for the G20 meeting. Regrettably,
some of us cannot make the invitation due to academic commitments. God willing,
we shall be making the next World Bank meeting.
The agenda
of the G20 meeting is to discuss the wicked problems which are clearly stated
in ten categories in the agenda of the meeting as follows: Investment,
Employment, Trade, Financial Regulations, Architecture, International Tax, Anti
Corruption Development, Sustainable Energy and Chain Change Finance. While
wishing my colleagues who are attending from the University of Cambridge
successful deliberations, it is my hope that the Buhari Administration will
benefit from the discussions.
The problem
of insecurity and threat to the economic and political peace of the world, such
as Boko Haram, is not slated for discussion. I do hope the world is not leaving
Boko Haram to Nigeria as her domestic problem. There is empirical evidence to
justify the fact that not much can be achieved in economic terms if world peace
is in issue. In any case, what can two days discussions achieve in a ten point
agenda? A wicked problem of agenda, perhaps, is scarcity of time!
(nationalmirror)
Jimoh Ibrahim writes from the MBA
class of the University of Cambridge
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