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Falling foreign reserves could
complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts in defending the Naira against
domestic and external risks. Further signs of reserves declining is likely to
trigger speculation around the Naira depreciating which could translate to
rising inflationary pressures. Given how inflation is already at a 17-month
high at 11.61%, the CBN is seen standing pat on interest rates in the short to
medium term.
Markets in wait-and-see mode amid trade uncertainty
Another week, another record high for
US stock markets despite renewed uncertainty and mixed messages from the
US-China trade front.
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Global equity bulls were initially
inspired by positive US economic data mid-week as third quarter GDP growth and
durable goods orders exceeded market expectations, but trade woes lingered in
the background. The fiery optimism revolving around a “phase one” deal between
the United States and China was quelled after Donald Trump signed a bill
backing Hong Kong protesters. Given the complex and intricate relationship
between Hong Kong and China, this move by Washington will certainly raise
concerns over the possibility of a US-China trade deal.
This negative sentiment is already
being reflected Asian markets on Friday with regional shares retreating as the
month comes to an end. With China threatening that it would take “firm
countermeasures” against the United States, investors may start questioning
whether the “phase one” trade deal will be signed in 2019. Until there is fresh
clarity and direction on the progress of US-China trade talks, markets may
enter a wait-and-see mode as the year slowly comes to an end.
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Sterling outlook influenced by polls
Buying sentiment towards the British
Pound received and explosive boost mid-week after a closely watched poll
projected a Conservative election victory.
A Boris Johnson win may signal the end
of a lengthy Brexit deadlock with the UK possibly leaving the European Union
before the January 31 2020 deadline. Such a market friendly outcome has the
potential the push the GBPUSD above 1.3000 and beyond. Alternatively, if the
general elections results in a hung parliament and Brexit remains in limbo, the
uncertainty is likely to weaken Sterling against every single G10 currency.
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Dollar supported by positive US data
Encouraging economic data from the
largest economy in the world continues to support the Greenback.
Sentiment towards the US economy has
received a boost after third quarter economic growth and durable goods orders
both exceeded market expectations. With the data surprise reducing market
expectations over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates anytime soon, the
Dollar is poised to push higher.
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In regards to the technical picture,
the Dollar Index is trading around 98.35 as of writing. An intraday breakout
above 98.50 should encourage a move towards 99.00 and beyond.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is on track to end November
shedding almost 4%, its worst monthly decline since November 2016.
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Explosive levels of optimism over
US-China trade talks, positive economic data from the United States and the
Federal Reserve hinting a pause in cutting interest rates reduced appetite for
Gold. Although bulls have lost the battle this month, the war still rages on.
Given how the next tariff deadline falls on December 15th where additional U.S
levies on Chinese exports will go into effect, Gold has the potential to shine
as the year slowly comes to an end.
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Escalating trade tensions are poised to
rekindle fears over slowing global growth and speculation around central banks
across the world easing monetary policy. The return of risk aversion and
expectations over lower interest rates should turbocharge buying sentiment
towards Gold which has gained roughly 13.50% year-to-date (YTD).
Focusing on the technical picture, the
precious metal is attempting to rebound on the daily timeframe. A breakout
above $1459 should encourage move higher towards $1463 and $1475.
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