Tuesday, 23 July 2019

COMMENTS ON CBN MPC INTEREST RATE DECISION

Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Research Analyst

Persistent inflationary pressures in Nigeria have prevented the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from joining the global monetary easing bandwagon this month.

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The CBN kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 13.5% in July as the central bank focused on price stability, even as economic growth remained important. Although a rate cut is in the pipeline, this will be heavily influenced by inflation which has been above the target range of 6%-9% for more than four years.

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With the pace of economic growth still fragile and the nation exposed to external risks in the form of Oil volatility, it becomes a matter of “when” rather than “if” the CBN will cut rates.

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Repeated signs of consumer prices cooling should provide the central bank with enough ammunition to pull the trigger on a rate cut in September. Given how lower interest rates will stimulate consumption, encourage businesses to boost investments and give banks more incentive to borrow, this could be one of the medicines Nigeria needs to restore lost strength.

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