Senior Research Analyst,
FXTM
History was made yesterday after the
Federal Reserve cut its interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time
since the global financial crisis in 2008.
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Typically easing monetary policy boosts
risk assets and weakens the currency. However, the reaction across financial
markets was the complete opposite with stocks tumbling and Dollar charging to a
fresh two-year high.
Although the US rate cut was widely
expected, the forward guidance left investors with more questions than answers.
With Jerome Powell suggesting that
the Fed was not about to start a long series of rate cuts, investors are now
pondering whether July’s move was a “one-and-done”.
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While the Fed also left the door open
for future cuts, saying it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”,
this will be heavily influenced by incoming data and US-China trade
developments.
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The Central Bank of Nigeria is poised to jump aboard the global
monetary easing train in September now that the Fed has made a move. Although
inflation in Nigeria remains above the 6%-9% target range, the CBN is likely to
cut rates in a bid to revive growth by stimulating consumption. How deep rates
are cut will depend on inflation and second quarter GDP data. With lower rates encouraging businesses to
bolster investments and offering banks
more incentive to borrow to corporations and households, this will be supportive of Nigeria’s growth.
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