Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
In the
face of economic uncertainty, dollar scarcity and depressed Oil prices, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has
devalued the Naira for the second
time this year.
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At an
auction of importers last Friday, the CBN asked that bids for foreign exchange
to be made at 380 Naira per dollar, compared with 360 previously. While this
move may harmonize Nigeria’s multiple exchange rates and even improve
transparency, it may come at the cost of higher inflation. Given how consumer
prices have already jumped to 12.40% in May amid border closures and supply
chain disruptions, a weaker Naira that fuels inflationary pressures could hit
living standards of Nigerians.
This
negative sentiment was reflected on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange, as the All Share Index closed in the red despite equity
markets across the globe rallying. Buying sentiment towards local stocks may
remain heavily influenced by coronavirus developments and domestic economic
data. With the economic calendar for Nigeria void of Tier 1 economic releases
this week, the focus may turn towards Oil prices which account for over 90%
export earnings and roughly 70% of government revenues.
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Nothing
much has changed in the Oil arena since the EIA reported a 7.2 mbpd drop in oil
stockpile last week. The commodity pretty much remains driven by coronavirus
related developments and factors influencing fuel demand. Appetite towards the
Oil received a minor boost thanks to the positive US jobs report; however,
gains were later capped by risks around a new round of lockdowns due to rising
coronavirus cases.
Looking
at the technical picture, it’s the same old story with WTI Crude. $40 remains a strong resistance level. Sustained
weakness below this point may open a path back towards $36. Should the $40
level give way, the next key point of interest may be found around $43.70.
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