The truth is agriculture as
the centerpiece of our diversification programme will not begin to manifest
lasting results until well after 2019. Large-scale expansion of agricultural
output is a long-term project, not a short-term event. It is an economic and
social marathon and not a sprint.
A casual look at our
economic history reveals that the diversification of Nigeria’s economy before
the advent of oil was never planned. The major export products at the time –
coal, cocoa, palm oil, groundnut, hides and skins, tin, iron, gold, columbite,
aluminium, timber, rubber – were natural resources, not planned products.
Unlike Malaysia which had
to borrow seedlings from Nigeria to start its palm oil-based products sector,
Nigeria’s oil palm largely grew abundantly in the wild. The Regional and the
Federal Governments only expanded what there was, and the Marketing Boards
acted as agents for producers and buyers.
Certainly, nobody thinks we
planned the deposits of coal, tin, iron or other minerals. The truth is; we
have never had any national experience or success in planning anything. Thus
when “experts” point to the diversified economy of the past, they are referring
to a situation which occurred by accident: an act of God which we merely
exploited.
Most of what is written or
said is wishful thinking – even by those in government. For agriculture to play
its vital role in our economic recovery, it must involve plans, programmes,
priorities and disciplined funding. If properly planned and executed, we might
not be out of the woods until well after 2019.
Agricultural products fall
into two broad categories – food and cash crops. Given scarce financial
resources, every nation which had successfully embarked on agricultural
revolution had invariably chosen one as its focus. India and China selected
food first and proceeded to produce surpluses of certain crops which led to
exports. In the process they imposed strict import/export prohibitions on food
items – especially grains. And from that starting point, it was easy to select
the food items whose massive production was promoted officially.
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