Research Analyst at FXTM
The mood across financial markets is
set to remain cautious as investors find comfort on the sidelines ahead of
several major central bank decisions over the coming days.
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When factoring in how the US Federal
Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all be under the
spotlight this week, market players will prefer to sit on the sidelines and
await the outcome of these meetings in anticipation, before deciding what move
to make in their portfolios.
Persistent US-China trade tensions,
heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Brexit uncertainty and
concerns over decelerating global growth are clearly the enemies of central
banks at present. The increased potential of another round of central banks
easing monetary policy to counter a global slowdown continues to offer
investors something to fall back on, but the key question is - for how long?
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Global equity markets have overall
performed well in June, although the gains have been built on shaky
foundations. Should central bank policymakers sound less downbeat than the
market is expecting and soften speculation of monetary easing, stock markets
face the risk of tumbling like a house of cards.
Dollar bulls to be tested by Federal Reserve
Where the Dollar concludes this week
will be heavily influenced by the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting
scheduled over the next two days.
While it is widely expected that US
interest rates will be left unchanged this month, investors should not be quick
to label this policy meeting as a non-event. Markets will be closely
scrutinizing the meeting for confirmation of an interest rate cut occurring as
early as next month. Should the Federal Reserve disappoint those expectations,
or create a frenzy by not offering any hints about upcoming action to be taken
in spite of persistent global headwinds, King Dollar should make a return and
will look to shoot to the moon.
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Currency spotlight – GBPUSD
Investors who were looking for a fresh
opportunity to attack the Pound were given the thumbs up yesterday on rising
concerns that the leading candidate Boris Johnson, risks steering Britain
towards the path of a no-deal Brexit should he become Prime Minister.
The past few days have certainly not
been kind to the battered Pound which tumbled to a fresh 2019 low below 1.2520
earlier this morning. With the terrible combination of Brexit uncertainty and
political risk in the UK haunting investor attraction towards Sterling, the
path of least resistance points south.
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Taking a look at the technical picture,
the GBPUSD is under intense selling pressure on the daily charts. A breakdown
below 1.2500 is seen opening a path towards 1.2430.
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