FXTM Research Analyst
Global equity bulls are continuing
their unstoppable momentum into the conclusion of the trading week, as
well-orchestrated, cautious remarks from a chorus of central bank heavyweights
fuel speculation that a new era of monetary policy easing to counter
decelerating global growth is on the menu.
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Major central banks including the
European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (FED), Bank of England (BoE) and
Bank of Japan (BoJ) have all signalled a willingness to ease policy if needed,
consequently reviving risk sentiment among investors.
The smoky atmosphere clouding the
global outlook of unpredictable external risks has persistently weighed on the
world economic outlook, meaning that the prospect of central banks coming to
the rescue has provided the hero to this story that investors want to see.
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Although Asian shares saw some mild
profit taking on Friday morning, they are still en route to posting their best
weekly gains since January. The real winner from the Fed’s dovish statement and
return of risk appetite is the S&P 500, which has set a new record high of
2954.18.
While the stock market rally is
commendable, the pressing question on the minds of many investors is whether
this momentum is sustainable. Where global stocks trade during the third
quarter of 2019 will be highly dependent on US-China trade developments and
whether major central banks actually move forward with easing monetary policy.
Should trade tensions remain a major theme and central banks hold back from
easing, equity markets could find themselves exposed to downside shocks.
Gold leaps past $1400 on Dollar weakness and geopolitics
It has been an incredibly bullish
trading week for Gold which has blasted past the $1400 level for the first time
since 2013.
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The combination of Dollar weakness,
speculation over lower US interest rates and geopolitical tensions have
encouraged investors to sprint to the hills and pick up Gold in their
portfolio.
With major central banks signalling
potential rate cuts in the future, Gold is set to push higher, especially when
considering how the precious metal performs well in low interest rate
environments. Looking at the technical picture, Gold has already hit $1400 on
the daily charts. A weekly close above this level is seen encouraging a move
towards $1413.
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Commodity spotlight – Oil
Oil markets were turbocharged by
geopolitical tensions this week with Brent rushing past $64, its highest level
since May. While geopolitical tensions appear to be doing OPEC+ a favour by
supporting Oil prices, the question is - for how long?
The OPEC+ alliance appears set to
extend its supply cuts into the second half of 2019, as producers look to build
a more sustainable floor under Oil prices and rebalance global markets. Despite
pushing higher on the back of geopolitical tensions, Oil prices remain exposed
to downside shocks. For as long as concerns over slowing global growth and weak
demand for Crude remain major themes, the Oil rally is at risk of running out
of steam, regardless of the expected OPEC+ extensions on supply cuts.
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