Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
This will be a relatively quiet week
for the Nigerian economy data-wise as investors await updates on consumer
prices.
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The annual inflation rate is projected
to jump 12.10% as food prices surge amid the country’s ongoing border closures.
Rising inflationary pressures will certainly complicate the Central Bank of
Nigeria’s efforts to ease monetary policy to stimulate growth. While the
outlook for Nigeria’s economy remains influenced by oil prices and US-China
trade developments, domestic risks must not be overlooked.
According to the World Bank, the
country's growth is projected to remain broadly unchanged, rising only to an
average of 2.1% in 2020-2022. The international financial institution expressed
concerns over policy uncertainty, multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange
restrictions and rising inflation. For Nigeria to truly break away from the
chains of oil reliance and reduce exposure to external risks, structural
economic reforms need to be put in place.
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Outside of Nigeria, the United States
and China are expected to sign the “phase one” trade deal on Wednesday. This
step should boost global risk sentiment and support not only stock markets but
emerging-market assets. Oil prices were explosively volatile last week amid
geopolitical shocks.
Although the commodity has entered this
week on a calmer note, any signs of renewed tensions between the United States
and Iran could influence Oil. Emerging market crude producers such as Nigeria
may benefit from higher Oil prices, especially if higher oil reduces
speculation around a naira devaluation.
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