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Appetite for riskier assets including
stocks and emerging markets are likely to diminish as investors rush towards
prime destinations of safety like Gold. The Nigerian Naira like many other
emerging market currencies could weaken on renewed global growth concerns with
falling Oil prices adding insult to injury.
The economic calendar for Nigeria is
relatively light this week, as most of the action may be on Friday when foreign
exchange reserves and manufacturing PMI data are published. While a positive
set of economic releases could boost sentiment towards the Nigerian economy,
much of the focus will remain on the outcome of last week’s Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policy
meeting, the pending Federal Reserve meeting and coronavirus fears.
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As widely expected, the Central Bank of
Nigeria left interest rates unchanged at 13.5% in January. However, the CBN
looked beyond the usual monetary policy tools by tweaking the Cash Reserve
Ratio (CRR) to 27.5% from 22.5%. The increase in CRR reduces the amount of
money available for banks to lend, essentially pressuring liquidity with a goal
of reducing inflation levels. With the CBN on a quest to tame inflation,
speculation around a rate cut anytime has been thrown out of the window.
Outside of Nigeria, the Federal Reserve policy
meeting on Wednesday will be in focus. The central bank is widely expected to
leave interest rates unchanged thanks to a robust US labour market, moderating
inflation and positive economic data. However, if the Fed expresses optimism
over the US economy, the Dollar could appreciate consequently pressuring the
Naira.
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In the commodity markets, Oil prices
have tumbled over 3% on Monday and shed more than 10% since the start of 2020.
Rising fears over the coronavirus impacting demand for Oil could drag the
commodity deeper in the abyss. Falling Oil is significant for Nigeria,
especially when considering how roughly 90% of export earnings and over 70% of
government revenues are from Oil exports. What is even more concerning is
Nigeria’s 2020 budget which has set the benchmark for Oil at $57. With Brent
crude currently trading at $59 and WTI Oil around $52.50, the Oil revenue goal
of N2.64 trillion is under threat.
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