Euro softens
ahead of ECB decision
There
is a growing air of anticipation across financial markets ahead of the European
Central Bank rate decision and press conference later in the day.
Although
the ECB is broadly expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in April, the
main focus and potential action will probably revolve around Draghi’s
post-meeting press conference. While Mario Draghi is likely to reiterate the
message he delivered during March’s policy meeting, when the ECB dropped its
easing bias, this could be presented with dovish touch. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
With Eurozone economic data disappointing in recent months, inflation still
below the golden 2% target and lingering trade tensions weighing on sentiment,
doves could steal the show today.
A key
question on the mind of many investors is whether the soft economic data during
Q1 will result in the ECB delaying the QE exit decision. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
With speculation rising over the ECB pushing back the taper timeline, it will
be interesting to hear Mario Draghi’s thoughts on this topic during his press
conference. The Euro remains at risk of extending losses against the Dollar if
Draghi strikes a cautious tone.
This
is certainly shaping up to be a bearish trading week for the Euro, which has
tumbled to levels not seen since the 1 March – below 1.2160. Focusing on the
technical picture, the EURUSD is at risk of tumbling lower, if bears are able
to maintain control below the 1.2200 level. Previous support around 1.2200
could transform into a dynamic resistance, which invites a decline towards
1.2150 and 1.2090.
Commodity
spotlight – WTI Oil
WTI
Crude appreciated on Thursday morning, as market expectations over the United
States re-imposing sanctions against Iran and a drop in Venezuela’s oil
production fuelled fears of supply shortages. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html
It is
becoming increasingly clear that oil bulls remain heavily reliant on
geopolitical tensions to sustain the current rally. While further upside could
be on the cards in the near term amid OPEC optimism, gains are likely to be
capped down the road by soaring production from U.S Shale. Taking a look at the
technical picture, WTI Crude continues to fulfil the prerequisites of a bullish
trend as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. WTI has the
potential to challenge $70 if prices are able to keep above $67.50.
Alternatively, if bulls become exhausted and fail to defend $67.50, the next
level of interest will be at $66.00.
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